Replacing Tymoshenko……….

Well dear readers, now Mr Yanukovych will become President of Ukraine in 3 days time, obviously all eyes are now on Ms Tymoshenko and if she will be able to keep a majority coalition in the RADA……and therefore keep her job as Prime Minister.

She is without doubt a fighter, but would it serve her purposes better to resign and lead the opposition with 2015 not that far away when you are only 49 years old.

It is something of a gamble to do so, as under the Prime Ministership of Mr Yanukovych, many Ukrainians felt that things imporved domestically and therefore should he, as President, have a parliament and Prime Minister he can work with, there is a reasonable chance that the same feeling will come back despite the obvious need for some serious and unpopular issues to occur in the economic situation.

If she resigns…..or is pushed out legally…….who will take her place?

Mr Yanukovych and the Party of Regions have narrowed the field to 3 candidates of which only one is a PoR member.

Yanukovich named businessman Sergey Tigipko and former foreign minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, as well as a member of his own party, former finance minister Mykola Azarov, as the most likely candidates.

“Today we can say that talks surround three figures. They are Tigipko, Yatsenyuk and Azarov,” Yanukovich told the Ukraina television station in an interview. “We expect a result by the end of this coming week.”

Tigipko, 50, and Yatsenyuk, 35, have presented themselves as pragmatists who would be able to undertake tough reforms as Ukraine reels from a deep economic crisis. Russian-born Azarov, 63, leans more towards Moscow and traditional state regulation.

As president, Yanukovich has no formal part in creating a coalition, but his party will be in talks with other factions in parliament to decide on a programme and new prime minister. – Reuters

It seems quite logical……and therefore not necessarily going to happen…….that either Tigipko or Yatsenyuk would be favourites simply because they are outside of the PoR and attracted 13 and 7 % respectively of the national vote and would make Mr Yanukovych more acceptable to those in western Ukraine by having a non PoR Prime Minister.

Also, Mr Yanukovych can no longer lead the PoR now he is President as he can have no formal ties to any political party.  This is a role Mr Azarov could fill however, being Russian born would reinforce the dislike for the PoR in western Ukraine.

This said, there is still room for all 3 in the set up of the new parliament which would distribute Mr Yanukovych’s acceptibility more evenly throughout Ukraine.

Both Tigipko and Yatensyuk could work effectively as Prime Minister or leader of the NBU, both having the necessary experience, but the NBU would be a good position for a loyal PoR and Yanukovych man like Azarov who has economic experience.

That would mean either Tigipko or Yatsenyuk could take positions of Prime Minister and Foreign Minsiter, not only insuring Yankovych’s acceptibility in western Ukraine but also…..if there are no snap parliamentary elections……..in 2012 when the next parliamentary elections are due, the support for the coaltion of Tigipko and Yatsenyuk supporters who will undoubtedly gain in force in the parliament when such an election is called.

Expect to see all three men offered significant roles in any new coaltion formed with the PoR however…..although Yatsenyuk has previously said he would remain in opposition regardless of whether Yanukovych or Tymoshenko won the election…..so he may refuse any role offered to him……we will see.

My money, at the moment……subject to change and acceptance of roles offered of course…….is Tigipko to be Prime Minsiter, Yatsenyuk to become Foreign Minister (particularly useful as he is fluent in English) and Azarov to become head of the NBU.

A Cossack Capital?

Interfax-Ukraine Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko has said he hopes that the construction of a Cossack capital near Kyiv will start this spring.

He said this at an extended meeting of the Council of Ukrainian Cossacks in Kyiv on Feb. 22.

“I’d like us to implement this project this spring, uniting all of our efforts,” Yushchenko said.

He said that a land plot for the construction of the Cossack capital near Kyiv had already been allocated. He said that this was a good place within ten minutes’ drive of Kyiv, with a river and forest located nearby.

Yushchenko said that this would be the official residence of Ukrainian Cossacks.

Apart from the land allocated sounding very much like “prime land” normally only aquired by large bribes and payoffs in and around Kyiv…….of course not in this case being a Yushenko pet project running along nationalist lines as per normal……isn’t this a rather divisive thing?

What’s next?  Allocated land plots for a Ruthenians capital, a Crimean Tartars capital, plots for any remenence of the founding tribes of Ukraine?

Maybe Ukraine could turn into just a large number of capitals and lands similar to a patchwork quilt of Indian reservations and get rid of city administrations and regional administrations?

More mutterings about an EU Army

http://euobserver.com/9/29510

Well dear readers, most of this article has little to with Ukraine……unless the Autonomous Republic of Crimea was to seek full independence again, in which case European Union policy would seem to have a precident in the Bosnia Kosovo issue as discussed here.

This is not the reason I picked this article to ponder however.

I have chosen it for this end section and then to extend the thought to Ukraine and its position between Russia and the EU.

Ms Ashton’s speeches are being watched for clues on how she plans to shape EU foreign policy over the next five years.

Her Belgrade statement depicted the EU as a guarantor of security, a role formally reserved for Nato, but with French and German leaders recently speaking out in support of a European army.

“In this world, the small and medium-sized states of Europe cannot provide real security. That is why the European Union is essential for our future,” Ms Ashton said.

The highlighting is obviously my own and this is a subject which I have touched on before, specifically when commenting upon the sale of French Warships to Russia despite concerns of fellow EU and NATO allies.

Now there is of course, something in Mr Sarkozy’s statement when he said about the sale, words to the effect that how can NATO keep saying it sees Russia as an ally if we do not treat it as one.  A reasonable point to some degree …..particularly if you have a shared point of view about European security as France, Russia, possibly Germany and few others have, but of course not the whole reason for the sale.

More honesty would be found in the fact that French shipyards are suffering and lay-offs of hundreds and thousands of workers will happen if the sale does not go through.  The actual price of the warship, a paultry Euro 500 million makes little difference to France in the long run of course, but employment now, in a time of recession and faultering recovery does.

This sale will happen for domestic reasons in France irrespective of the “concerns” of fellow EU and NATO members such as Latvia for example.

The sale has been accommodated by the current NATO head also, stating there was nothing wrong with it.

Why is this, as 5 years ago, such a sale would never have happened?

The answer of course is France has now returned to the NATO limelight after years on the sidelines and has a powerful and influential figure in Mr Sarkozy which is able to use his persoanl abilities to make this happen.

Germany and Italy also have good economic and energy reasons not to oppose such a sale with Russia.

What has this to do with an EU Army?

Well, for many years France has been an advocate of such an entity and Germany has not raised any decent towards the idea…….which has been interpreted as silent agreement.  I have not read anywhere as stated in the article that Germany is now vocally supporting the idea although I am not surprised and even amongst British political ranks some agreement on this issue can also be found……as long as it does not scupper NATO.

In many ways, there are already what would be classed as “specialist divisions” already existing of an EU Army with EU member states being part of several such units which do not answer to NATO.  At present the control of these units is done by a 6 month rotating national leadership of those which make up a specific “specialisation”…….similar to the 6 month rotating leadership of the EU prior to the Lisbon Treaty.

Almost every nation in the EU is in at least one of these “special divisions” including the UK.

The Lisbon Treaty has now created “figureheads” for the EU.  As Henry Kissinger once said, “Who do I call when I want to speak to Europe?”  That question has now been answered, even if a swift reply would not be forthcoming as those figureheads can only speak for the EU when a consensus of opinion has been formed by the 27 member states…..so the answer would be, “Ill make some calls and get back to you” 

What is really lacking to make an EU Army a reality is a command structure for the numbers of men, women and armour to go behind the “specialist divisions” already exisiting.   That is purely down to the lack of political will to do it of course…….at the moment.

Several issues arrise from the creation of such an entity.

Firstly, there is the NATO question.  Would the creation of such an entity spell the end of NATO?  Probably not in all honesty.  If the EU Army was to take on Article 5, namely the “one for all and all for one” clause in defence of another NATO member for the continent of Europe only and EU members only, then this would be very much a defensive geographical institution and much less costly for many members then sending their people to far flung corners of the planet on NATO expeditions (with or without UN mandates) where their headcount and expertise really makes no difference in the NATO ranks on the ground in these theatres.

Maybe a set levy for NATO membership to share financial costs only would be the answer or even reconstruction works only and a fee for not fighting.  In effect, similar to the British Army which has teeth arms……the front line fighters and artillery……and then those which are not teeth arms but logistical.  The Netherlands now looks set to remove its troops from Afghanistan when August arrives for financial as well as political reasons.

Of course this would have the USA and some Commonealth nations quite upset as they will be seen by their public to be sending their men and women to die on the pretext of defending a nation which is not putting their own in harms way…….but that is happening now anyway whether they chose to recognise that or not……and most of those nations did not support at least one of the recent NATO “expeditions”.

There would be those who would say OK, but don’t expect us from the US and Commonwealth nations to come rushing to your aid if you are invaded, but then that would not be an issue if the EU Army is taking over Article 5 guarantees for the geographical region of Europe, if only by way of direct and imminent invasion of a foreign power.

In effect the EU would be taking responsibility for the defence of the EU which it certainly can afford to do and certainly has the military numbers to manage in a defensive capacity as long as it does not go globe trotting playing the world policeman which NATO has become.

In this respect there would be room for both organsiations, one responsible for EU defence and another to act as global bobby for the UN…..and of course, those countries which want to be “influential” in global policies would not leave NATO.

We also have to be honest and recognise that of the worlds top 5 arms manufacturers there are 2 EU nations amongst them, both of which are also nuclear, in the shape of France and the UK…..with Ukraine coming in at number 6 in the world for arms sales.

Europe really does not need US technology in arms, but of course, why not let the US not only pay for “missile defences” but also rent to the US the ground they put them on as well……money and defence for free, (even if some of the voting public are against it, a small price to pay), with the added bonus of a stimulous to the immediate local economy!

You have to wonder about the US taxpayer in all that though……providing Europe a free defence shield and then after paying for that, the US also has to rent the ground on which the missiles will be housed from that nation.  Maybe they are all under the impression that Europe doesn’t know how to make weapons or has a military other than the UK military?

What has this to do with Ukraine?  Well much would depend on whether the EU Army would be an army made up soley of EU nations, namely full members, whether it would be made up of all nations on the recognised continent of Europe, which would then include Russia which manages to get part of its territory into Europe even if the vast majority is Eurasia and therefore obviously would include Ukraine, or whether it would be EU nations and those with assocaited status like the Eastern European Partnership program which again involves Ukraine and quite possibly Russia in some of the programs.

Of course this would please both Mr Medvedev and Mr Sarkozy as both have the same European defence agenda even if the methods and reasons are different……if the reasons are different at all.

(Lets face it, with Iraq and Afghanistan on-going, France chose a strange time to re-enter the NATO limelight……unless it had an agenda which was not being heard from the shadows).

The next question, assuming it was formed, is who would control it?  A rotating command struture would seem quite pointless now there are official figureheads to call (for Mr Kissinger) which have been appointed under the Lisbon Treaty…….and we would only be talking about European defence and not proactive and pre-emptive strikes elsewhere around the globe, for that would remain a NATO remit……or so we are to believe.

Just as in NATO it would still remain a soveriegn nations decision to commit its military to any conflict…..but of course if the conflict is actually happening on European soil (again) then there is much more interest in a united EU effort than that of poppy fields in Afghanistan, Taliban in Pakistan or mythical WMDs in Iraq.

Given the difficult balancing act Ukraine has already with keeping its trading partners happy both in Russia and the EU…..and it cannot afford to lose either one, then of course joining a purely defensive force would be a fairly cheap and attractive proposition, especially with both EU and Russian involvement and would certainly assist in the European intigration in more ways than just militarily……without the historical hangover of being “NATO”, and therefore much easier for the public to swallow.

It is debatable about how much additonal economic growth or how much of a boost to the economy the creation of an EU Army would have, but of course, France, the UK and Germany would all make some additional money in defence/arms contracts…….as would Russia and Ukraine should they be included in it.

NATO can then go chasing insurgents around the globe due to the lack of any serious coventional military threat from anywhere……including Iran which may be a nuclear threat but is not going to invade Europe, therefore not warranting the numbers of military people retained in NATO when anti ballistic missiles will nullify the threat.

In this day and age it is simply not necessary to have 500,000 troops anywhere (unless China was to become empirialsitic) to confront a conventional military force, particularly as has been shown, guerrilla warfare is far better at getting results than sending the calvery charging in over the ridge and several thousand people can keep one hundred thousand plus busy for 9 years or more with no recognisable gains as yet.

We will see what happens in the future of course, but it will take only one or two more NATO expeditions to be far more costly, politically divisvie and less timely than invisaged to make an EU Army constrained by mandate to only defend the continent of Europe from invasion,  far more acceptable to the average European voter than it currently is.

Tymoshenko withdraws court challenge……

Well dear readers, as anticipated, Ms Tymoshenk has withdrawn her court challenge over the presidential elections results, and as expected, she has blamed her withdrawl on biased officials not giving her a fair hearing.

“As a presidential candidate, I have faced machinery, which works not on the basis of justice at all,” Tymoshenko told journalists in a recess of a Higher Administrative Court session on Saturday.

Tymoshenko described the procedure of the consideration of her suit against the Central Election Commission at the Higher Administrative Court as “a performance that absolutely does not look like the administration of justice.”

“It is obvious that, if they continue to consider this issue without our participation, this will mean that they want to sanctify this falsification on any circumstances and make it seem legitimate,” she said.

You have to admire the brazen duplicity she has for blaming the same biased courts she has used to her advantage time and again over the past 5 years.

It seems the courts are against her, the nation voted against her, the exit polls all lied and the international observers were also complicite in her failure in a grand conspiracy including the leaders of the rest of the world who have already acknowledged and congratulated her rival on the result of the election.

Will this go down as one of the world’s greatest conspiracy theories along with the assassination of JFK, Freemasonary, Jesuits, religion, WMDs, the death of Dr David Kelly?…….Err no, quite obviously she actually lost the election and mostly through her own doing during her campaign.

On the upside, for Ms Tymoshenko, she still holds the most powerful office in the land as Prime Minsiter……at least at the moment…….and will do so either as Prime Minister or Acting Prime Minister until the summer should she lose the majority in parliament such is the timescale for new elections……unless PoR can form a majority coalition themselves of which the chances are slim and more simply replace her.

Of course this has all been political showboating to a degree and for the most part just another way to cast doubt over the legitimacy of the opponets victory.  It is very doubtful that the PoR managed to pervert the vote any more than her own “dedicate followers” could have……and probably did in equal amounts.

Should her appeal still go ahead despite her withdrawl of it?  Well it depends where you sit.  If you are a die-hard Tymoshenko supporter, you like her will say “It is obvious that, if they continue to consider this issue without our participation, this will mean that they want to sanctify this falsification on any circumstances and make it seem legitimate,”……..however if you are an international observer in which foreign nations put such trust to declare a vote free and fair or not…….then maybe you will want some court vindication stating that the vote stands, the count was correct and the vote was “free and fair” as you declared.

Whatever, now the minor position of President has been settled, the true battle for power…….the Prime Ministership and majority coalition in parliament now begins!

EU Project – Invest East

Sometimes there are token gestures……and then others there are gestures which are just completely bloody pointless dear readers.

Here is a completely bloody pointless gesture from the EU……

Interfax-Ukraine The European Commission has issued a call for proposals for new regional investment and trade facilitation project EAST-INVEST for Eastern Partnership countries, the press service of the Delegation of the European Union to Ukraine has reported.

EAST-INVEST with a budget of EUR 7 million is intended to contribute to the economic development of the Eastern Neighborhood region and to the improvement of its business environment by facilitating networks between EU and Eastern Neighborhood region public and private organizations.

The new trade facilitation project will aim to encourage new flows of foreign direct investments and to strengthen the investment promotion process between the EU and the Partner Countries, as well as between the Eastern Neighbors.

Also EAST-INVEST project foresees: strengthening a public-private dialog by integrating SMEs, business facilitators and selected public-sector SME facilitators into the networking mechanisms; facilitating exchange of best practices and interconnections between EU and Eastern Neighborhood companies in order to favor business co-operation agreements, mutual trade, transfer of technology, customs procedures, product standards, and investment; developing the capacity of Eastern Neighborhood SME support organizations.

The Eastern Partnership consists of the following countries: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.

Indeed dear readers, 6 nations and a massive Euro 7 million to spend.  What a massive difference Euro 1.2 million will make to each nation if it is even shared equally.  One of the good lady’s companies, www.odessa-pa.com could well fall into the category of “business facilitator” and is certainly an SME, but to actually make any more of a dent in the marketplace that it already does would take a fair slice of the Euro 1.2 million Ukraine would recieve if the money was allocated evenly.

What could be far more useful for such a concept would be actually holding this event in Brussels or a major European city, sponsored by the EU and inviting SME’s from the six nations in question to actually show their worth to Europeans who don’t know 99.999% of them exist whilst the EU keeps control of the money instead of just handing it over to some corrupt official in any of these nations to simply pocket hidden by a trail of false accounting and expenditure.

Then again, the EU is currently Euro 14 billion behind in honouring it’s existing pledges, so this could well be another nice idea backed up by…….well, nothing!

http://euobserver.com/9/29496

Spuds!

Ukrainian companies importing potatoes from Saudi Arabia and Egypt
Ukrainian companies will boost imports of potatoes to cover a domestic deficit, UKRINFORM has reported, citing the Delo newspaper.

The main suppliers of potatoes are Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The ships with products from these countries are already at a Ukrainian port. The Ukrainian trade and economic mission in Egypt said that potatoes supplies were a project of private companies, rather than a state program. The average cost of Egyptian potatoes is three times higher than Ukrainian. Import companies said that potatoes supplies on the Ukrainian market would grow at least by a third this season.

Well, what can I say, a country bigger than France with the best agricultural land in Europe and once the bread basket of the USSR is……..importing potatoes!

How mismanaged can a country get?

(Oh and yes, it’s true…….the spuds from Egypt are labelled as such in the local supermarkets here in Odessa.)

Abraham Maslow, Yanukovych and Tymoshenko

Eh, WTF!!!….I hear you saying dear readers.

Well I’m bored and was thinking about getting a job again……but quickly dismissed the idea……you’ll be pleased to know as I decided I am not that bored!

Anyway, whilst getting together enough diplomas to wallpaper the average apartment sized toilet and scan them, I came across my Bachelor’s from York University in Business Management (and Finance) as well as some old material, including the essential reading of the time, relating to Abraham Maslow.

Yeh and?  I know that’s what your thinking…….unless you don’t know who Abraham Maslow was and are now in “Google” or “Wiki” mode.

Well, I got to thinking about where Ms Tymoshenko and Mr YanuKovych fit into the Mr Maslow hierarchy of needs/theory of human motivation in relation to that of Ukraine’s needs.

What are their motivators and do they suit Ukraine or even a democratic political government.

The above pyramid is a general guide to Maslow’s theory but we need to break down several layers to identify the particular drivers even fruther.  At this point I will make the obvious disclaimer that I am not a psychologist however all my qualifications are in either construction or business management and all my experience since HM Forces comes in both construction, management and latterly owning and running several companies which all somehow manage to turn a profit to one degree or another, so my comments, although my own, are very much based on my experience in such roles senior management/executive.

We will look at what Ukraine really needs and then compare it to what I think drives Tymoshenko and Yanukovych.

Ukraine really needs the economy sorting out once and for all, regardless of what it takes to do it as this is this biggest issue to the everyday Ukrainian.  This falls into the bottom two rungs of the above pyramid and is of course a bloody long way from the top.

Secondly the civil service of Ukraine needs to be completely streamlined and made to adhere to the law without deviation or favour to improve the life of the average Ukrainian.  Again matters at the bottom of the pyramid.

Thirdly, the legislature needs to be clear, simple and effective in both crime, business and civil matters, which again sits at the bottom of the pyramid.

So do our leaders have the same motivators and needs as the country?

Of course not.

Both can be said to have an absolute and unbelievable need for power and control above any other motivation.  Then there is, much more apparant in Ms Tymoshenko but also existing in Mr Yanukovych, a need for autonomy and autocracy to do what they want to do without the annoyance of others getting in the way, such is democracy of course!   99.99%  of all their energy goes into this.

Therefore their motivators are in no way aligned to the needs of Ukraine or the Ukrainian.

Even if we allow a little of these motivators to be a requirement of a leader, which they are, it cannot be to the exclusion of all else in the pyramid as it is in their case.

We can then look at the secondary or less important drivers for them.

Next will come the need to change things…..as long as it is they that change it and the changes are only those they wish…..if you look at the pyramid above, so far we have not had one instantance which is subheaded – “Love/belonging” which gets even close to what Ukrainians are desperately seeking at this level and below on the pyramid.

Everything is in the realm of “self-actualisation” and does not even decend into “Esteem” as yet.

You can claim at a stretch, that as both are “popularist” by nature to one half of the country or the other, that esteem and public recognition then are on their agenda……but we are still nowhere near the desire for “belonging” or “safety” where Ukraine and Ukrainians want to have stability.

Neither seem to value or put any worth on professional expertise, respect for or from others, the need to feel they are wanted or belong in the Ukrainian community and needless to say, both are so personally rich that money and job security do not even register in their fight for power during the vast majority of the political cycle.

With such little regard to understanding the issues through professional expertise…..”esteem”….and absolutely no interest in the “belonging” section of the pyramid at all within their drivers, are these people ever going to have a good effect on Ukraine regardless of their words or deeds when they are so removed from the “family of Ukraine” and have none of the concerns below the “belonging” section of the pyramid?

The answer is of course not. 

If what really get’s them out of bed in a morning is anything but the lower end of the pyramid then they will never be anything more than successful private business people who will use Ukraine for their own gain and nothing more, paying lip service to the bottom of the pyramid and those which are struggling for even “safety”.

I know, what makes them different from any other politician in Ukraine or even on the planet……not much I suppose!

Anyway, I have put my diplomas away again, having analysed my drivers for thinking about getting a job and not really finding one real driver on Mr Maslow’s pyramid.

I think I am in need of a serious challenge again if I am to motivate myself to do anything…….any offers?

So now what – snap parliamentary elections?

Well dear readers, desipte the suspended result of the Presidential election due to Ms Tymoshenko’s court challenge, let us look to where the real power lays in Ukraine…….the parliament.

Yeh, I know “President” has a nice omnipresent all powerful ring to it…..but in Ukraine it doesn’t bring the President such powers as the title would suggest.

Way too many commentators and under informed or just plain stupid people are considering Ukraine doomed because Mr Yanukovych will probably have his victory confirmed after the court challenge……after all, every single exit poll in Ukraine had him as the winner……..as well as the vote count…….and the international observers saying all was good and had no reason to cry “foul”.

Mr Yanukovych, even when his victory is confirmed is still is a very weak position…….in fact a position no stronger than Mr Yushenko has been in.

I will grant you that Mr Yushenko has been his own worst enemy and in many regards, the worst enemy of Ukraine, not by his inability to lead but by his absolute inability and continued refusal to work with Ms Tymoshenko as Prime Minister.  If Ms Tymoshenko said “black” he would say “white” or vice versa regardless of what was obviously best for Ukraine.

Returning to the parliament though, Mr Yanukovych does not have a parliamentary majority for insure his policies will get through.  Whilst his party cetainly have the most seats of any individual party in the parliament, Ukraine works on dodgey coalitions of various parties to form an absolute majority.

At present, Ms Tymoshenko holds that majority and for this reason is Prime Minister.

It is not so easy to remove her either.  Once Mr yanukovych gets sworn in on 25th February……if things don’t change……he then has to gather a new majority, or his party does……in the RADA which can generate enough votes to unseat Ms Tymoshenko.  This is not as easy as you would think.

Why?  Mr Yanukovych has many important people in his party who will want paying jobs in the government……he has more people than he has positions.  Ms Tymoshenko however has far less people and can offer good jobs to those in other parties to insure a coalition.

Even if she can be voted out, she will become acting Prime Minister until there are parliamentary elections which realistically simply will not be held before September due to legal timelines given in the consititution for each step in the process to occur.

Is it even in Party of Regions and Mr Yanukovych’s interest to have a snap election…….or Ms Tymoshenko’s and the ByT for that matter?

Probably not is the answer.  A simple look at the runners and riders in the first round of the presidential election would say that both would suffer.

Sergiy Tigipko who came 3rd with justover 13% of the vote currently has no MPs in the RADA.  Arseniy Yantseniuk who came 4th with 7% of the vote also has no MP’s in the RADA.  Mr Yushenko, who is allied to OU-PSD got just over 5% of the vote but has no MPs which are directly “his” either.  Bloc Lytvyn who got just under 3% of the vote and actually lost ground would lose MPs in the RADA and they currently form part of the coalition.

What would happen within the RADA if there is a snap parliamentary election?  A look at the first round of voting in the presidential campaign could be a good indicator and would mean that PoR and Mr Yanukovych would have 35% of MPs, Ms Tymoshenko 25% of MPs and then comes the current fly’s in the ointment which currently have no MPs……13% of MPs would be Tigipko, 7% of MPs Yatseniuk and 5% MPs to Yushenko should he form his own faction or solidify his links with OU-SDP.

A radical shift in the parliamentary landscape for both Mr Yanukovych and Ms Tymoshenko to contend with and a very uncertain chance of building a solid majority by way of coalition.

In short, neither would like to see a snap-election as both of their positions would be put in jeopardy.  Mr Yanukvych would of course still remain president, but no reforms or changes he may want to make will ever get through the RADA unless he holds a strong majority there…..making him hamstrung and as ineffective as Yushenko was but for different reasons…..namely they will be based on political differences and not the absolute personal hatred which was felt between Yushenko and Tymoshenko. 

Ms Tymoshenko could well lose her Prime Ministerial position completely if Tigipko, Yatseniuk and Yushenko joined forces and be forced into opposition……or of course PoR and any one of the aforementioned form a coalition.

Not a prospect she will look forward too either.  Far better to avoid snap parliamentary elections and keep the likes of Tigipko, Yatensiuk and Yushenko out of the RADA by way of MP representation until the next scheduled parliamentary elections.  Delaying the inevitable maybe, but giving her time to try and sort out the economy, National Bank, civil serbice and deregulated the laws on business, all of which are responsibility of parliament and not president under the Ukrainian consititution.

This leaves only two real options which are slightly less distasteful for Mr Yanukovych and Ms Tymoshenko.  Mr Yanukovych can try and form a new majority in the RADA with the PoR and others…..but as I say it is unlikely with not enough good jobs to give to his own members let alone coalition members too……which leaves Ms Tymoshenko as Prime Minsiter and the parliament out of his control.

The only other solution…..after a hopefully short cameo of President verses Parliament again as under Yushenko and Tymoshenko, is a coaltion between PoR and ByT where Yanukovych gets a manageable parliament under the Prime Ministership of Ms Tymoshenko and the coalition is so large it is unbreakable in the RADA……after all there is nothing to chose between the policies of Ms Tymoshenko and Mr Yanukovych for the most part.

This puts Ms Tymoshenko in a fairly decent position as she can demand several key posts for her “loyalty” to the coalition.  It also means that Mr Yanukovych, when the constitution is amended, will undoubtedly have to cede some presidential powers to the office of Prime Minsiter and Ms Tymoshenko.

This way there would be a reasonable chance of some much needed change in Ukraine internally but also would mean that both could be fairly assured of retaining their respective positions in 2015 as well.

With the local elections having now been postponed until a date to be fixed, it has scuppered any chance of Ms Tymoshenko strengthening her hold on some regional administrations as a backlash to Mr Yankuovych becoming president, the only card Mr Yanukovych really had to play to keep her in check…..even if that card was actually played by an OU-PSD deputy who submitted the call to delay the regional elections.

In effect, if the PoR manage to create a new coalition…..which is unlikely, Ms Tymoshenko goes into opposition and Mr Yanukovych stands a reasonable chance on being able to deliver on campaign promises.

In the probable event Ms Tymoshenko manages to keep her coalition majority in the RADA and remains Prime Minsiter then there will be continued bitching and backbiting until an agreement is made in which she will join a coalition with the PoR on her terms…….but in the meantime Ukraine will continue to suffer as over the past 5 years, ergo prresidential decrees overturned by parliament and president in turn refusing to sign into law parliamentary decisions forcing parliament to override the president if it can muster the votes to do so.

In the not impossible situation where there is simply no impass, as with Mr Yushenko and Ms Tymoshenko, then there will be a very new and very unpredictable landscape in the RADA which neither would welcome, but are both so full of themselves they would rather risk that than create stability.

Pretty grim outlook for the short term……sorry!