So now what – snap parliamentary elections?

Well dear readers, desipte the suspended result of the Presidential election due to Ms Tymoshenko’s court challenge, let us look to where the real power lays in Ukraine…….the parliament.

Yeh, I know “President” has a nice omnipresent all powerful ring to it…..but in Ukraine it doesn’t bring the President such powers as the title would suggest.

Way too many commentators and under informed or just plain stupid people are considering Ukraine doomed because Mr Yanukovych will probably have his victory confirmed after the court challenge……after all, every single exit poll in Ukraine had him as the winner……..as well as the vote count…….and the international observers saying all was good and had no reason to cry “foul”.

Mr Yanukovych, even when his victory is confirmed is still is a very weak position…….in fact a position no stronger than Mr Yushenko has been in.

I will grant you that Mr Yushenko has been his own worst enemy and in many regards, the worst enemy of Ukraine, not by his inability to lead but by his absolute inability and continued refusal to work with Ms Tymoshenko as Prime Minister.  If Ms Tymoshenko said “black” he would say “white” or vice versa regardless of what was obviously best for Ukraine.

Returning to the parliament though, Mr Yanukovych does not have a parliamentary majority for insure his policies will get through.  Whilst his party cetainly have the most seats of any individual party in the parliament, Ukraine works on dodgey coalitions of various parties to form an absolute majority.

At present, Ms Tymoshenko holds that majority and for this reason is Prime Minister.

It is not so easy to remove her either.  Once Mr yanukovych gets sworn in on 25th February……if things don’t change……he then has to gather a new majority, or his party does……in the RADA which can generate enough votes to unseat Ms Tymoshenko.  This is not as easy as you would think.

Why?  Mr Yanukovych has many important people in his party who will want paying jobs in the government……he has more people than he has positions.  Ms Tymoshenko however has far less people and can offer good jobs to those in other parties to insure a coalition.

Even if she can be voted out, she will become acting Prime Minister until there are parliamentary elections which realistically simply will not be held before September due to legal timelines given in the consititution for each step in the process to occur.

Is it even in Party of Regions and Mr Yanukovych’s interest to have a snap election…….or Ms Tymoshenko’s and the ByT for that matter?

Probably not is the answer.  A simple look at the runners and riders in the first round of the presidential election would say that both would suffer.

Sergiy Tigipko who came 3rd with justover 13% of the vote currently has no MPs in the RADA.  Arseniy Yantseniuk who came 4th with 7% of the vote also has no MP’s in the RADA.  Mr Yushenko, who is allied to OU-PSD got just over 5% of the vote but has no MPs which are directly “his” either.  Bloc Lytvyn who got just under 3% of the vote and actually lost ground would lose MPs in the RADA and they currently form part of the coalition.

What would happen within the RADA if there is a snap parliamentary election?  A look at the first round of voting in the presidential campaign could be a good indicator and would mean that PoR and Mr Yanukovych would have 35% of MPs, Ms Tymoshenko 25% of MPs and then comes the current fly’s in the ointment which currently have no MPs……13% of MPs would be Tigipko, 7% of MPs Yatseniuk and 5% MPs to Yushenko should he form his own faction or solidify his links with OU-SDP.

A radical shift in the parliamentary landscape for both Mr Yanukovych and Ms Tymoshenko to contend with and a very uncertain chance of building a solid majority by way of coalition.

In short, neither would like to see a snap-election as both of their positions would be put in jeopardy.  Mr Yanukvych would of course still remain president, but no reforms or changes he may want to make will ever get through the RADA unless he holds a strong majority there…..making him hamstrung and as ineffective as Yushenko was but for different reasons…..namely they will be based on political differences and not the absolute personal hatred which was felt between Yushenko and Tymoshenko. 

Ms Tymoshenko could well lose her Prime Ministerial position completely if Tigipko, Yatseniuk and Yushenko joined forces and be forced into opposition……or of course PoR and any one of the aforementioned form a coalition.

Not a prospect she will look forward too either.  Far better to avoid snap parliamentary elections and keep the likes of Tigipko, Yatensiuk and Yushenko out of the RADA by way of MP representation until the next scheduled parliamentary elections.  Delaying the inevitable maybe, but giving her time to try and sort out the economy, National Bank, civil serbice and deregulated the laws on business, all of which are responsibility of parliament and not president under the Ukrainian consititution.

This leaves only two real options which are slightly less distasteful for Mr Yanukovych and Ms Tymoshenko.  Mr Yanukovych can try and form a new majority in the RADA with the PoR and others…..but as I say it is unlikely with not enough good jobs to give to his own members let alone coalition members too……which leaves Ms Tymoshenko as Prime Minsiter and the parliament out of his control.

The only other solution…..after a hopefully short cameo of President verses Parliament again as under Yushenko and Tymoshenko, is a coaltion between PoR and ByT where Yanukovych gets a manageable parliament under the Prime Ministership of Ms Tymoshenko and the coalition is so large it is unbreakable in the RADA……after all there is nothing to chose between the policies of Ms Tymoshenko and Mr Yanukovych for the most part.

This puts Ms Tymoshenko in a fairly decent position as she can demand several key posts for her “loyalty” to the coalition.  It also means that Mr Yanukovych, when the constitution is amended, will undoubtedly have to cede some presidential powers to the office of Prime Minsiter and Ms Tymoshenko.

This way there would be a reasonable chance of some much needed change in Ukraine internally but also would mean that both could be fairly assured of retaining their respective positions in 2015 as well.

With the local elections having now been postponed until a date to be fixed, it has scuppered any chance of Ms Tymoshenko strengthening her hold on some regional administrations as a backlash to Mr Yankuovych becoming president, the only card Mr Yanukovych really had to play to keep her in check…..even if that card was actually played by an OU-PSD deputy who submitted the call to delay the regional elections.

In effect, if the PoR manage to create a new coalition…..which is unlikely, Ms Tymoshenko goes into opposition and Mr Yanukovych stands a reasonable chance on being able to deliver on campaign promises.

In the probable event Ms Tymoshenko manages to keep her coalition majority in the RADA and remains Prime Minsiter then there will be continued bitching and backbiting until an agreement is made in which she will join a coalition with the PoR on her terms…….but in the meantime Ukraine will continue to suffer as over the past 5 years, ergo prresidential decrees overturned by parliament and president in turn refusing to sign into law parliamentary decisions forcing parliament to override the president if it can muster the votes to do so.

In the not impossible situation where there is simply no impass, as with Mr Yushenko and Ms Tymoshenko, then there will be a very new and very unpredictable landscape in the RADA which neither would welcome, but are both so full of themselves they would rather risk that than create stability.

Pretty grim outlook for the short term……sorry!