Replacing Tymoshenko……….

Well dear readers, now Mr Yanukovych will become President of Ukraine in 3 days time, obviously all eyes are now on Ms Tymoshenko and if she will be able to keep a majority coalition in the RADA……and therefore keep her job as Prime Minister.

She is without doubt a fighter, but would it serve her purposes better to resign and lead the opposition with 2015 not that far away when you are only 49 years old.

It is something of a gamble to do so, as under the Prime Ministership of Mr Yanukovych, many Ukrainians felt that things imporved domestically and therefore should he, as President, have a parliament and Prime Minister he can work with, there is a reasonable chance that the same feeling will come back despite the obvious need for some serious and unpopular issues to occur in the economic situation.

If she resigns…..or is pushed out legally…….who will take her place?

Mr Yanukovych and the Party of Regions have narrowed the field to 3 candidates of which only one is a PoR member.

Yanukovich named businessman Sergey Tigipko and former foreign minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, as well as a member of his own party, former finance minister Mykola Azarov, as the most likely candidates.

“Today we can say that talks surround three figures. They are Tigipko, Yatsenyuk and Azarov,” Yanukovich told the Ukraina television station in an interview. “We expect a result by the end of this coming week.”

Tigipko, 50, and Yatsenyuk, 35, have presented themselves as pragmatists who would be able to undertake tough reforms as Ukraine reels from a deep economic crisis. Russian-born Azarov, 63, leans more towards Moscow and traditional state regulation.

As president, Yanukovich has no formal part in creating a coalition, but his party will be in talks with other factions in parliament to decide on a programme and new prime minister. – Reuters

It seems quite logical……and therefore not necessarily going to happen…….that either Tigipko or Yatsenyuk would be favourites simply because they are outside of the PoR and attracted 13 and 7 % respectively of the national vote and would make Mr Yanukovych more acceptable to those in western Ukraine by having a non PoR Prime Minister.

Also, Mr Yanukovych can no longer lead the PoR now he is President as he can have no formal ties to any political party.  This is a role Mr Azarov could fill however, being Russian born would reinforce the dislike for the PoR in western Ukraine.

This said, there is still room for all 3 in the set up of the new parliament which would distribute Mr Yanukovych’s acceptibility more evenly throughout Ukraine.

Both Tigipko and Yatensyuk could work effectively as Prime Minister or leader of the NBU, both having the necessary experience, but the NBU would be a good position for a loyal PoR and Yanukovych man like Azarov who has economic experience.

That would mean either Tigipko or Yatsenyuk could take positions of Prime Minister and Foreign Minsiter, not only insuring Yankovych’s acceptibility in western Ukraine but also…..if there are no snap parliamentary elections……..in 2012 when the next parliamentary elections are due, the support for the coaltion of Tigipko and Yatsenyuk supporters who will undoubtedly gain in force in the parliament when such an election is called.

Expect to see all three men offered significant roles in any new coaltion formed with the PoR however…..although Yatsenyuk has previously said he would remain in opposition regardless of whether Yanukovych or Tymoshenko won the election…..so he may refuse any role offered to him……we will see.

My money, at the moment……subject to change and acceptance of roles offered of course…….is Tigipko to be Prime Minsiter, Yatsenyuk to become Foreign Minister (particularly useful as he is fluent in English) and Azarov to become head of the NBU.