Posts Tagged ‘Ukaine’

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CSTO consider Євромайдан a threat

December 24, 2013

It seems that Євромайдан has been targeted by the (Russian led) Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and identified as a threat similar to “colour revolutions” – which it quantifies as “a special model of the coup using political, information, communication , moral and psychological methods of influence, and its ultimate goal – the complete disintegration of the state, the change of power and the establishment of foreign control over the country” – according to a Kommersant article.

Apparently those pesky “Western opponents of the Russian Federation manipulate international institutions election observation , actively influence the minds of Internet users, through NGOs and the media form a distorted picture of public sentiment.”  – Blimey, I didn’t know we still had it in us to do that collectively.  The EU normally works on the lowest common denominator agreed by all, and it would take a long time to reach such a consensus as described above – particularly when such nefarious deeds are normally a very sovereign affair.

But a threat to the CSTO?  Well of course – both in terms of regional instability to use a broad – and very real –  expression, but also the casuistic democracy gene may infiltrate CSTO society with renewed vigor.  A terribly bad thing to happen for those sat atop a power vertical – the fall is often unsightly from such lofty heights.

The recommendations of this CSTO summit?  The “generation of counter-propaganda tools“.

None of this is a surprise of course.  The only questions are once those counter-propaganda tools have been generated are they used defensively or pro-actively?  Are they strictly used domestically, or projected?

Does it matter?

These days acting pro-actively seems to be the de facto definition of defence.  Perhaps the question would be better worded as to whether they will be used passively or aggressively – home or abroad?

Of course the task is now to counter-propaganda the counter propaganda.

Now, I will wish those readers who celebrate Christmas on 25th December, a very, very merry Christmas!

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New Economy, New Country – Natalia Korolevska

June 17, 2012

New economy, new country?

As many of you readers will know, since this blog began years ago, when talking of political personalities,  the likes of Yanukovych and Tymoshenko have long been seen as an anchor to the recycled Soviet machinery, so mired in their opaque and murky past that they cannot escape it – and neither should they.

Since 2010 Yatsenuik, Tigipko and now since her falling out with Tymoshenko, Natalia Korolevska are three faces that are likely to become “the” political faces of Ukraine in the next decade when the Ukrainian public eventually consign the corrupt hangover of Tymoshenko/Yanukovych and their ilk to the political leadership rubbish bin.

There are one or two others as well, and as and when, they will be written about.

Of note, for any election monitors looking at media coverage ahead of October’s parliamentary elections, Natalia Korolevska is hardly ever off my screen at the moment in Odessa.  Whether she thinks Odessa is there for the taking, I’m not sure.  Yatseniuk who has history with Odessa, has a far better chance of taking it from the PoR than she does in all truthfulness.

Anyway, on 15th June, Ms Korolevska turned up in Odessa to present and talk about her draft  programme “New economy, new country”.  I am keen to say something positive as amongst the younger generation of Ukrainian politicians, she will become a leading light in my opinion, despite the fact she has made hundreds of millions of US$  by allegedly nefariously navigating the “old economy, old country” in order to buy her way into the RADA in 2006 and dodgy dealing within that elite business cesspit ever since, vastly increasing her personal wealth (although now her business interests have been transfered to her husband’s name I’m led to believe in some vein effort to distance herself from them.)

Unfortunately, finding something positive to say is not that easy when it comes to her “New economy, new country” programme, despite the fact I am looking for a spark of light in a very dark tunnel when it comes to Ukrainian politics.

Ms Korolevska enlightened Odessa with tales of “economic miracles” and her vision of a Ukrainian miracle is average salaries of Euro 1000 and pensions of Euro 500 each month.

Perhaps if her historical leader Ms Tymoshenko, vigorously defended by Ms Korolevska to the point of nominating her for the Nobel Peace Prize until they fell out,  hadn’t authorised such a crippling gas deal running from 2009 – 2019, there would be a few extra $ for pensions or education or health?  (On the presumption that the current government wouldn’t have wasted it in some other way, which is highly likely.)

So returning to “economic miracles” as proposed by Ms Korolevska as the saviour of Ukraine,  where, who, how and when does this “economic miracle” arrive with Ukraine, and possibly more importantly given that good policy is often robustly resisted by the regional fiefdoms, how and who would insure its effective implementation?

Well, according to her, she has been collecting data from countries where economic miracles have occurred, where the structure of the economy has been changed, where jobs in the very short term have been created, where the size, scale and diversity of the economy has grown.

That shouldn’t have taken long, there are numerous in-depth studies by academics of good standing to be found on the Internet, and to be quite honest, as she herself stated in 2006 when she joined the Ukrainian parliament, “it seems that everyone here is well aware of the difficulties, but nobody makes an attempt resolve them and to help the people.”  Nonetheless, if she has found the time to compile her own studies and recommendations between visiting Davos and the Brussels bubble, fair play to her.

Exactly which nations “economic miracles” she has studied and drawn conclusions from are a mystery.  How they can and will be transposed to Ukraine to transform its economy also remains unclear.  This is particularly important when Ms Korolevska has previously recommended sacking all judges, prosecutors, lawyers and defenders due to the corrupt legal system and replacing them – without giving a clue where experienced and qualified replacements will actually come from or how they will remain uncorrupted once in office.  Her stance however, is that is cannot be reformed but those currently within the system, despite her stance meaning the system simply ceases to exist when she has sacked everybody in it.

If she did a similar study to that of her “economic miracle” when reforming corrupt legal systems, she would note that no nation has sacked all the judges, lawyers, prosecutors and defenders whilst making those reforms.

So the next question is when this “economic miracle” will manifest itself in Ukraine.  In the 6 years and counting that she has been a RADA MP it has yet to materialise in any shape or form that she is prescribing as the prescription for a “new country”.

The most positive thing I can say about her visit to Odessa, other than the fact she visited Odessa, is that she has things written down, almost manifesto-like.  Apart from that, she said nothing that my butcher, supermarket check-out girl, barman or taxi driver wouldn’t say.  Certainly not enough to make a voter change from who they would normally vote for to vote for her.

Lots of form and absolutely no substance.  Luckily she has several months to up her game…..considerably!

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