Archive for May 24th, 2016


Demographic voter bases (The Saakashvili target) – Ukraine

May 24, 2016

As stated in an entry some months ago when there was some doubt over the formation of a new Cabinet of Ministers materialising, Ms Tymoshenko and the political vehicle the serves her (Batkivshchyna) had already begun electioneering – with her trademark usual populist nonsense and Robert Mugabe-esque economics naturally to the fore.

That pre-election electioneering has not stopped – quite the opposite, it seems to be gathering momentum.

A reader may ponder just how such flapdoodle is financed – and will continue to be financed for months ahead – considering the amount of prime media time she is commanding (compared to others).

(A reader may also cynically ponder as to just why the media still bows to her ego and accepts her prerequisites that former investigative journalists turned MPs such as Sergei Leshchenko must have left any television studio prior to her arrival and subsequent populist monologue.)

Ms Tymoshenko is clearly aiming to gather in the pensioner vote (in the absence of the Communist Party and now defunct Party of Regions) and the agrarian vote too, in an effort to add them to her traditional and fairly solid 13% of the constituency.  (Somebody has to try and win over the old Communist voter base, so why not Ms Tymoshenko, and why not start now?)

Whilst President Poroshenko continues to broadcast the actions of Russia, as indeed he should for Russia will remain a significant threat (through its various measures) to Ukraine far, far into the future, the domestic constituency sees reform as the most necessary and top ranking issue facing Ukraine – and quite rightly.

The net result is that President Poroshenko, now perceived to control the Prime Minister and Prosecutor General (how long before the Interior Minister is replaced by a Poroshenko man?) is fully responsible for all progress and ills of the nation domestically (as well as internationally) despite constitutional responsibilities.  Thus only reforms will save President Poroshenko at the ballot box – regardless of how much he may prefer to orate of the dastardly and illegal deeds of The Kremlin.

Likewise only reforms will save his prodigy as Prime Minister and (latest) chosen man to head the PGO – and it is these people that face a far immediate and difficult political horizon when it comes to early national ballots and securing sections of the demographic voter base as a foundation.

It is perhaps interesting therefore to note the comments of Davit Sakvarelidze of 24th May in Kharkiv – for they indicate the voter base demographic that any new Saakashvili associated and/or led, party will be targeting – that of the Ukrainian SME.

It is not a demographic that will easily take to the populist nonsense of Ms Tymoshenko, nor will it feel represented by the remnants of Party Regions under the various flags these parliamentarians will be flying, for historically they are associated with big business and the oligarchy.

Samopomich still remains too provincial to capture the imagination of SMEs nationally, the Radicals have nothing to offer by way of competent policy, and thus far the Poroshenko (and to be annihilated at the next election) People’s Front coalition are perceived to have completely failed SMEs – even to the point of not providing the most basic of idiots guide to the newly opened EU market via the DCFTA..

SMEs therefore would appear to be fertile ground for a new party – and a new party supported by and/or led by Misha Saakashvili there will be in preparation for the inevitable early Verkhovna Rada elections.


It seems hardly a difficult matter to create a party manifesto based upon repealing so much legislative and bureaucratic codswallop that currently suppresses and thwarts SMEs and entrepreneurs in Ukraine – even if that is all that is in a party manifesto.

Indeed any manifesto that promises nothing other than repealing current legislative nonsense may prove to be far more popular than the usual populist promises of quick (and unachievable) fixes based upon Zambian economic theory, or providing subsidies far beyond anything responsible governance would allow.

As is often the case with policy, legislation, and governance, less is more – so why not in a party manifesto?

The target for any new Saakashvili supported and/or led party would be (realistically) to achieve approximately 20% of the national vote – for no other party seems likely to reach 20% of the national vote.  That would leave them in a solid position for coalition building – or opposition.  (To be blunt it seems unlikely that any party will pass the 20% mark at the time of writing, and the last polls seen by the blog had a Misha Saakashvili anointed political entity currently only half way to that 20% nationally – prior to identifying a target demographic.)

The question to be asked therefore, now that the demographic of SMEs has been identified by Mr Sakvarelidze as the target for any Saakashvili blessed political entity, is how any such political party will frame what it will do for this vital section of the society/economy.

A humble suggestion would be to work on the “less is more” principle, publicly and repeatedly identifying what obstacles and legislation will be removed and repealed to ease the SME burden – that and to begin an education programme posthaste for SMEs regarding how to achieve market entrance to the EU as a preparatory electioneering act – which would be far more useful when it comes to potential voter traction than any voter listening to a prime time monologue delivered by Ms Tymoshenko.

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