There may be trouble – or “The Troubles” – ahead

December 11, 2014

In an entry back in early August, when the Ukrainian military had seemingly stopped its rot and began to retake Ukrainian territory, the following paragraphs appeared forewarning of a Northern Ireland “Troubles” scenario looking to the months and years ahead in Ukraine:

“…….“Events” not designed to lite “Novorussia” fires in other Oblasts, but “events” designed to show Kyiv that it cannot guarantee the normalcy of civilised life anywhere on its territory should The Kremlin choose otherwise.

Again to be blunt, there is so much unaccounted weaponry now in Ukraine that it can be buried or Quarter-Mastered for use by those who can take “event” led ad hoc incidents forward across the entire nation for a decade or more. Thus any declarations of “victory” will very probably be within very limited military parameters if and when they come.

Targets aplenty, weaponry no issue, willing “tourists” and the disillusioned undoubtedly to volunteer in the commissioning of “events” in the years ahead. A move toward (plausibly deniable) old school terrorist activity is hardly a leap too great to contemplate tactically – though whether such a tactic would have a controlling effect over the destiny of Ukraine, perhaps depends on the frequency and scale of any heinous acts that may come.”

For those remotely interested,”The Troubles” were not something spared Soviet attention or propaganda back in the day, directed at the UK, naturally.

Anyway, we are now some months on from that entry, so the question is duly raised as to the accuracy of its predictions regarding incidents outside of the current conflict zone.

Thus far the majority of successfully completed terrorist incidents have occurred in Kharkiv and Odessa.  No surprise perhaps, that predominantly Russian speaking but generally pro-Ukrainian cities be the epicentres of such action for those motivated to carry out such terrorist acts.

It has to be said that the targeting in Odessa has been fairly consistent, running along two themes – with an anomaly of a September explosion damaging rail track.  The first, Privat Bank premises, undoubtedly due to Kolomoyski’s ownership of the bank, and the “patriotic” establishments/ventures.

There have been several minor explosions at various Privat Bank premises over the past months, and most recently, indeed within the past couple of weeks, a small bomb partially destroyed the “Patriot” store at 4 Malaya Arnautskaya – a store that as the name suggests sells much “Blue and Yellow” – and today in the early hours of this morning, an explosion occurred at new office centre on Admiralskogo Prospect and Krasnova – an office used by those collecting, collating and distributing donated supplies by the people of Odessa for the soldiers fighting in eastern Ukraine.

The explosion this morning damaging a shipment of sanitary and medical supplies for the 28th Mechanised Brigade, the 14th Territorial Defence Battalion and the Luhansk 1 Volunteer Battalion.

CCTV footage would seem to suggest a female leaving the package outside the office door.

Fortunately – or perhaps deliberately – all explosions in Odessa have occurred during the silent hours and seem to have been intent upon causing societal upset via property damage rather than physical harm.

In Kharkiv, in the past month, at least 5 bombs have been successfully detonated, the most widely reported being the incident of 10th November causing injuries – a significant departure from incidents thus far in Odessa.

It is perhaps only a matter of time however, before Odessa begins to see injuries too, be it by design or default.

So, spectacular failures by the SBU?  Maybe, depending upon the circumstances surrounding each successful act and any accompanying preventative intelligence failures – but hardly a fortnight passes in Odessa without the press reporting on the SBU detaining small numbers of those with guns and/or explosives with alleged intent to agitate the locals via acts of terrorism – and there is no such thing as 100% security.  Those who would claim otherwise have never worked in national security.

Thus, as matters in the east currently rumble on with slightly less intensity than previously, should there be an expectation that such “isolated incidents” will become more frequent, and therefore something falling far short of what many would call “isolated incidents”?

So far, nothing has changed that would mitigate the paragraphs quoted above from the early August entry – thus it seems certain to continue, as predicted for months and probably years to come.  There may be “trouble” ahead, the question is whether it will manifest itself in methods and duration of “The Troubles”.

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