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And so RADA VIII begins

November 28, 2014

Today saw 419 or 423 MPs take their oath in the RADA, officially beginning the 8th RADA since Ukrainian independence.

That it is the 8th in a period of 23 years tells its own story, when considering a RADA term is supposed to be for 5 years.  Simple math ably displays that the average term of any sitting RADA has been far shorter than 5 years.

Will this RADA last its full term?  Time will tell, but it does seem somewhat unlikely.  Therefore the first 90 days of this RADA need be energetic, considered, workmanlike, and priority driven, if it is to either do enough to insure a far greater chance of seeing out a full term, or to pass critical legislation that will improve the quality of any subsequent legislature.  Far better election laws, the removal/limiting of MPs inviolability etc., certainly top the ability to self-cleanse any future RADA at the ballot box – and/or remove the attractiveness of becoming or remaining an MP for the most dubious of characters.

Sergei Kivalov & Eduard Matviychuk - MPs of dubious character

Sergei Kivalov & Eduard Matviychuk – MPs of dubious character

There are of course, many other very pressing issues.  The task facing not only any new government, but the legislature as well, is nothing short of gargantuan.  Especially so when the easy stuff – that which is being watched closely by those external of Ukraine – seems to be far too difficult for some people to leave alone.

There is then an entire raft of retarded legislation that would counter the interests of Ukraine – though of course not the interests of certain Ukrainians – tabled and pending the new legislature’s decision.  Draft legislation such as this proposal on aviation regulation, likely to turn European carriers away from Ukraine, rather than toward it.

Time will tell whether the new RADA will actually read the legislation put before it, and have the collective comprehension of the casual effects of anything it passes.  Just as the G3 issue linked above is a test of any new Cabinet getting it right for the international audience – the draft Aviation Regulations will be a very similar test for that same audience relating to the new legislature.  Both issues will become powerful indicators for foreign corporate and private FDI.

The protracted arguments over the wording of constitutional changes will be particularly interesting – particularly as the document itself is contradictory in places already.

One can also be forgiven for feeling somewhat glum when noting that Yulia Tymoshenko, Olexandr Turchynov and Yuri Lutsenko will head the party factions of Batkivshchyna, People’s Front and Block Poroshenko respectively within the majority coalition.  A more fractious cast from the old-school days of grubby, feckless, nefarious Ukrainian politics that has so ill-served the country since 1991 couldn’t be harder to find.  In fact, so fractious historically have these individuals been, what hope that the other two parties in the majority coalition can realistically play “peace-keeper/mediator” between them for 5 years?

Nevertheless, it is expected that by next Tuesday a new and full Cabinet of Ministers will have been elected – the Prime Minister and Speaker anticipated to be elected into their roles by the end of today.

……..And so it begins.

Keep our expectations low, but spirits high – and RADA VIII may just muddle through somehow without alienating the Ukrainian constituency or European goodwill.

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