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Ceasefire – Internal issues

September 7, 2014

A few months ago an entry was posted relating to what The Kremlin would do with all its (living) returning heroes.  It was aimed primarily at the likes of Igor Girkin/Strelkov and other “headliners”.

As became apparent, a month ago, whilst the fighting still raged, all such Russian headliners were rotated out of Ukraine and basically put out to grass.  Due to the result of insurance policies as implied, or simply an acknowledgement that these people still work directly with the Russian security services, these people are now happily living back in Moscow without media coverage or problems from the State.

However, amongst the Russian military, mercenaries and paid “volunteers“, there will be some genuinely ideologically motivated fighters who believe wholly in the “Novorussiya project” and the ideological pillars that support it.  The ceasefire, unless used as little more than a breather, is not going to sit well with such people for long.  At the time of writing, the strategic city of Mariupol was not taken – nor even attempted – prior to the ceasefire.  This even though it was well within abilities to do.

Without Mariupol, not only is there no “Novorussiya”, there isn’t even The Donbas in any meaningful way.  No sea link to anywhere, when there could have been.  Even the dullest of minds, or those crammed with ideology, will no doubt be asking themselves why that is, if they are there fighting for a Kremlin backed “Novorussiya”.

Perhaps post Monday and new sanctions on Russia, the ceasefire will mysteriously break down and it will be taken.  It may simply be a case of the Kremlin trying to avoid more sanctions by not taking Mariupol when it could.  Time will very soon tell.

That said, The Kremlin doesn’t need Mariupol to achieve its aim of dropping a very heavy anchor in the Ukrainian east, significantly slowing any head toward Europe – which is the real aim of the actions in the east.

There are also the “adventurers” amongst those fighting Kyiv too.  The criminals who hope to gain some form of authority and license to make money through criminal activity in what may become a very difficult area to police – whoever controls it when any negotiated future is settled.  A throwback to the 1990’s for this small region, as newly imported gangs form and fight for ascendancy.

Neither the “Novorussiya” ideology driven, nor the criminal mastermind wannabes, are going to be particularly welcome by The Kremlin, nor any new “management in waiting”, when trying to win the hearts and minds of the local population in an effort to convince them that things are better than before they came.  Such potentially problematic people will need to subdued to create not only the impression of normalcy, but one of improvement.

What to do with them – particularly as expected prisoner swaps may increase that number – be they Russians or Ukrainians?

Send them to the front lines during the ceasefire, in the hope that any temporary braking of it will see many die before a return is negotiated?  Send them to the front lines now in order to try and set some semblance of rule of law in their absence so that when they filter back they will simply be jailed en masse in some form of sweeping clean?

During real, or provoked false flag turf fighting incidents within Donetsk, simply shoot them?

Simply shoot them?  Cover stories to be formulated thereafter?

To make a pearl there needs to be some grit – but making a pearl is not what eastern Ukraine is about for The Kremlin.  It is about dropping anchors and slowing momentum.  Hardly something that can be done with rabid criminality or extreme ideology stalking the society you are trying to convince now has a better life than under Kyiv.

 

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