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Predictions for next week

July 26, 2014

Following on from the last entry – and due to there being no entries next week unless something truly unpredictable occurs – here are a few things to expect next week:

Tuesday 29th July – EU sector sanctions.  Will they change the course of The Kremlin?  In answering that, it is probably wise to consider whether The Kremlin has insured the achievement of any of its goals regarding Ukraine.  If the answer is “no” to the latter, then the answer is likely to be “no” to the former.

However, when considered not in the context of Ukraine, but in the context of the challenge to rule of law, disregard for treaties and charters Russia is itself a ratified signatory of, there appears an obvious need to display collective disapproval and the use of instruments designed to change course – even if they won’t change Kremlin course.

Thursday 31 July – Extraordinary plenary session of the RADA that will see draft laws on “Amending the Law of Ukraine”, the “State Budget of Ukraine for 2014” and on “Amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine and other Legislative Acts of Ukraine”  passed.

These are the laws that were not passed on 24th July, that upset Prime Minister Yatseniuk immensely prior to his resignation per the above linked entry.  On the subject of Prime Minister Yatseniuk, expect his resignation to be rejected by the RADA on or before 31st July too.

The net result being, he and the Cabinet of Ministers remain in post whilst having no official coalition.  That in turn allows for President Poroshenko to dissolve the RADA on or around 26th August after the constitutionally required 30 days for any new coalitions to form – which they deliberately won’t – and then announce elections for the 26th October, to be held simultaneously with local elections after the statutory 60 days of electoral campaigning.  All as predicted more than a month ago.

That said, do expect some changes in the Cabinet of Ministers as predicted at the beginning of the month.  These issues remain to be addressed and may also be dealt with on 31st July by a surviving Prime Minister Yatseniuk.

The next entry here, barring truly unpredictable occurrences, will be 4th August – though@OdessaBlogger on twitter will remain at least occasionally active between now and then.

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