Dim horizons – Denis Pushilin and DPR plans for 2015

July 1, 2014

Sometimes people of supposed importance make statements that make many wonder whether the orators of those statements are in any way aware of the world around them, and the events unfolding that specifically affect the comments they make.

Denis Pushilin appears to be one such character.   He is (currently) the self-declared Chairman of the Supreme Council of the People’s Republic of Donetsk.

Yesterday he stated that he would be nationalising all of Rinat Akhmetov’s assets in Donetsk – inferring that he must still believe that he will have any form of sway over events in Donetsk, de facto or de jure in 2015, when a proposed nationalisation programme will commence within the People’s Republic of Donetsk.

Yet only two realistic paths currently lay before the Donbas and the People’s Republic – neither of which lead to the continuance of the People’s Republic in either name or as an entity, nor any likelihood of positions in governance for those currently self-appointed.

By extension, by 2015, rather than nationalising anything, Denis Pushilin may well be either in hiding/self imposed exile, in a Ukrainian prison, dead, or will simply disappear from public life, location unknown – if he is lucky.

The first path is as described in yesterday’s entry.  ATO recommences, borders are secured, and the military is tasked with neutralising any form of Republic or potential area for a frozen conflict by way of territory within Ukraine.

The second path relates to the projection of Viktor Medvedchuk as Mr Putin’s chosen man for eastern Ukraine.  As despised as he is across Ukraine, there is a logic to installing Viktor Medvedchuk  as a regional chieftain in the east politically, for all parties to varying degrees – though the political costs for some may be high.

Of these two paths – and Ukraine may set forth upon one path and stick to it, or may set off on one and then swap to the other – quite possibly with Kremlin agreement to ease in Mr Medvedchuk amongst the dissenting within the DPR ranks.  Neither has much of a future for Denis Pushilin, any People’s Republic, or the chance of privatising Rinat Akhmetov’s assets in the Donbas.

Any third path that would go some way to supporting the People’s Republics involving open-ended porous Russian borders allowing large numbers of fighters and weaponry unhindered accesses into Ukraine, looks set to end.

Thus President Poroshenko will choose between the recommencement of the ATO – and/or the installation of the Mr Putin chosen Viktor Medvedchuk (in all probability) to lead the region within Ukraine.

The question for Denis Pushilin and the People’s Republic, seems to be by whose hand they will fall?  That of Ukraine and ATO, or that of The Kremlin and Mr Medvedchuk?  Perhaps a combination of both?

If it was difficult to see a viable future for the People’s Republics before the introduction of Viktor Medvedchuk by The Kremlin, it is certainly much harder to see one now.  The chances of any People’s Republics by 2015?  Currently they appear to be fading – and fading fast.



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