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What rises from the domestic political ashes?

June 6, 2014

Tomorrow sees the inauguration of Petro Poroshenko as president of Ukraine.

It is in and of itself an event – and hopefully the start of a more democratic process leading Ukraine – politically at least – further away from The Kremlin yoke it would have the nation don once more.

Whether or not it will also lead to the shunning of the oligarchical yoke under which Ukrainian politics has suffered is an open question.  Time will tell.

What is sure to happen is the demise of Party of Regions – which has already imploded – and also of Batkivshchyna, which Ms Tymoshenko simply will not be able to hold together, as I have already commented upon.

With regard to Batkivshchyna, the only question is whether it splits into two or three parts – Ms Tymoshenko and loyalists to her, those who will stick with Arseniy Yatseniuk, and those who will head directly to the Poroshenko camp either via Solidarity or UDAR.

Regardless the integrity of Batkivshchyna is ruptured.  The party ranking at least twice as high as its leader in every Ukrainian Olbast.  The end is upon it, and implosion similar to that of Party Regions assured.

But what of Party Regions?

Aside from its financier Rinat Akhmetov deliberately pointing it toward death at the hands of the electorate (rather than simply withdrawing his funding) by making Mikhail Dobkin its presidential candidate (rather than Sergie Tigipko), several groups are now appearing from the ashes – I mentioned one such groups at the end of yesterday’s entry – and also tweeted about in a little more depth:

Most content of those tweets confirmed today by Yuri Miroshenko – though Mr Mirsoshenko denies Sergei Liovochkin is behind his new entity, but states he would be more than welcome.  Why he denies this remains to be seen – unless Mr Liovochkin wants the ability to walk away or plausible deniability – when it is known within certain circles Mr Liovochkin is currently behind it – such awareness complete to the point of knowing there is a meeting of those committed to the new party on 17th June in Kyiv, prior to its public unveiling on 21st June – dates Mr Miroshenko is also coy about.  Time will soon prove this entry to be correct on all counts.

So aside from the groups forming under the sanctioned Sergei Kurchenko as mentioned yesterday, as well as that under Sergie Liovochkin to which the above tweets refer, there are also groups forming under ex-Speaker Volodyyr Rybak and Sergei Tigipko.

Much is smoldering amongst the Party Regions ashes – yet to become political factions of any note, a minimum of 32 MPs will be required.  Which of these will be successful and which will not remains to be seen.

If given the choice based upon the general directions any such groups would take, leaning toward those new entities that will form under Sergei Liovochkin and Sergei Tigipko would seem by far the preference to anything created by Sergei Kurchenko or Volodymr Rybak.

Of the inevitable Batkivshchyna split, there is really only Arseniy Yatseniuk, depending upon where he aligns himself – or not.

 

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One comment

  1. She lost big in the election (I got that completely wrong) but 13% solid support in Ukranian terms is still quite a lot – compared to everyone else but one. As for Poroshenko’s 50+ percent support, it looks very fluid – in some ways it’s like he was fortuitously near the chair when the music stopped. Such support might turn out be be come today – gone tomorrow. Same with all his new found colleagues.

    There again on the other hand I guess disappointed Poroshenko voters won’t switch back to her either. Generally without political parties with mass (or at least semi-mass) membership, dues and some kind of voting rights, I don’t see how anything will come of Ukranian politics except corruption and another Presidential failure. And then lets throw him out and try the next one.



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