“It wasn’t me” – Blessed are the peacemakers

May 27, 2014

Whilst vote counting is still not yet officially complete at the time of writing – but probably will be by the time of your reading, clearly Petro Poroshenko has convincingly won the Ukrainian presidential election in the first round – unprecedented in Ukraine.

However, he will not be sworn into office until 9th/10th June.  Official date yet to be announced.

At present he remains president elect, leader of the Solidarity Party and MP only.  Officially for the next 2 weeks or so, interim-President Turchynov remains in the top public office in the land.

Why so far away when the presidential elections were called to bring a legitimate president to the country as quickly as could practicably be accomplished?  Why will he not be sworn into office this week?  Or next?

As I tweeted yesterday:

Thus any good, bad or indifferent actions and outcomes between now and Mr Poroshenko’s inauguration will be placed at the door of Mr Turchynov – and actions The Kremlin will find “antagonistic” there will be aplenty during that time.

Interim-President Turchynov now (officially) has two weeks to deal with some on-going difficult, bloody and gritty issues before President Poroshenko assumes office and becomes the “blessed peacemaker” he states he will be.

The question is therefore just how much often very bloody, gritty and difficult work is interim-President Turchynov prepared to have attached to his curriculum vitae in paving the way for his incumbent over the next 2 weeks?

Arseniy Yatseniuk, having signed the IMF deal, will be the man held responsible for any associated pain.

Will Olexander Turchynov be forceful and swift enough to be  the man associated with a forceful crackdown in the east?

What of the apparent decision by the Ukrainian National Security Council yesterday to leave the CIS and introduce Visas for Russian citizens ASAP?  Will that be accomplished prior to Mr Poroshenko’s inauguration now the decision has been made?

Should such a decision have been deferred until the president elect (now there is one)  has actually taken office – or has it been deliberately done to get as many actions The Kremlin will find “antagonistic” done before he takes office?

Has the inauguration of Petro Poroshenko been deliberately slated far enough into the future – but not too far – to create a setting of plausible deniability whereby a forceful action in the east of the nation occurs prior to him becoming president and peacemaker, as well as far enough into the future for the most antagonistic of policy actions as viewed by The Kremlin, to be instigated and implemented when he has no official control over – or official input into – such policies?

Is the Ukrainian tactic to have Petro eventually meet Vladimir saying “Just like you said those little green men in Crimea weren’t yours, I wasn’t in charge when these decisions were made and I cannot undo those decisions now as they were lawfully adopted – whether I agree with them or not, it wasn’t me.”

If that is the tactic to be adopted, what other Kremlin antagonising policies will be forthcoming and adopted over the next two weeks prior to Mr Poroshenko officially sitting in the highest seat of Ukrainian public office?

It will be interesting to see what else hits the legislative and policy calendar in the immediate, that can be plausibly denied by the president elect.



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