Beyond the limits of plausible election manipulation? Odessa

May 27, 2014

A short entry today after two entries yesterday – how exciting!

This entry relates – once again – to the elections for the office of Odessa Mayor that had already been criticised by democracy NGOs.  Most readers will not find particularly interesting unless shenanigans draw your attention.

In a somewhat Dickensian tweet yesterday evening, I tweeted the following:

The exit polls showing Eduard Guvitz with 42.6% of the vote and Gennady Truhanov trailing significantly with 36% of the electorate backing him.  Allowing for the +/- 2% margin of error, a seemingly assured win for Eduard Gurvitz.

However, the preliminary results have Gennady Truhanov with 46% of the vote and Eduard Gurvitz on 31%.  Almost a mirror image of the exit polls.  Over night, Mr Gurvitz seemingly losing 11.6% of his anticipated vote and Mr Truhanov gaining 10% over his expected ballot.

That is far beyond any plausible electoral manipulation and ballot massaging.

It will be very interesting to see what the election monitoring bodies have to say about the mayoral election.  Perhaps the exit polls were seriously flawed.

Regardless, it seems in time honoured tradition that the always murky mayoral elections in Odessa will result in court challenges – and if you think it really doesn’t matter, both candidates have a different vision for Ukraine’s 4th largest city – and for Ukraine itself.



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