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Where will the “fascist compass” point next?

May 23, 2014

The first round of the Ukrainian presidential elections occur in 3 days time.

It seems unlikely that the first round will produce a winner with 50% +1 to negate the need for a second round of voting on 15th June.

Without doubt Petro Poroshenko will reach the second round.  His run-off competitor likely to be Yulia Tymoshenko, or somewhat less likely, Sergey Tigipko.

There is an irony given certain statements, that the likely run-off between Mr Poroshenko and Ms Tymoshenko means that both candidates are from the south and east of Ukraine – Mr Poroshenko was born in Odessa and Ms Tymoshenko in Dnepropetrovsk.  A Ukrainian president from central or western Ukraine there will not be.

This, however, is not the point of this entry.

More to the point is that Dmitry Yarosh of Pravy Sector and Oleh Tyahnybok of Svoboda – the swivel-eyed, far right, neo-nazi fascists claimed to be running amok and leading the nation astray en masse by certain quarters via unwavering and repeated propaganda – are likely to garner a truly minuscule 1 – 2% of the national vote.

Therein ends any hope of plausibly continuing the facade that Ukrainians are now a nation of rabid fascists who willfully appoint and/or accept fascists as leaders.  It is going to be a choice between oligarchs and not fascists for president.

However the fascist line is now clearly cemented into the psyche of many within certain audiences subjected to mind-numbing propaganda.  It cannot simply be undone at a moments notice.  It must therefore be redirected.

Fortunately for The Kremlin, May is not only a month for the first round of the Ukrainian presidential elections, but it is also the month for the European Parliament elections too – European parliamentary elections are today in fact.

Within these elections, the far right parties (Front National – France, Jobbik – Hungary etc) are expected to do far better than ever before, although clearly not well enough to overcome a grand coalition of pro-European parties that would seem an inevitable result of the elections.

Thus despite most far right parties in Europe being more “Putin friendly” than other more centralist groups, and will be provide many a delicious quote for the propaganda machine to Kremlin glee in the future once elected – not to mention more nefarious subversive opportunities – the voting will also provide The Kremlin with a plausible reframing of the Ukrainian situation, moving the fascists from Ukraine to the EU – and by extension NATO – via a nuanced shift in Russian MSM propaganda and rhetoric.

Ukraine can then slowly – or swiftly – be recast as something of a confused victim of a fascist EU/NATO rather than a hotbed of fascism as it currently painted and which its election results will refute.

Naturally such a propaganda shift would be far easier for the Russian public to swallow if a wider reaching regional security consensus could be orated as necessary – even if only on paper rather than in anything that results in real cooperation.  China’s President Xi Jinping has just provided such a statement.

From this The Kremlin can – should it wish – create such a pivot and refocus on the electoral polling in an increasingly “fascist”/far right Europe, and less so on the electoral polling of a clear and unequivocal fascist rebuttal that will occur at the Ukrainian polls.

The polling numbers from both elections in 3 days time will at least support that narrative and provide the opportunity to quietly open communication with whichever oligarch takes the Ukrainian presidency.

Over the next 6 weeks we will be able to see if such a nuanced propaganda shift begins to occur.

As I have written recently, The Kremlin requires different tactics with regard Ukraine should it desire broader results than currently achieved in only two eastern Oblasts.  Perhaps they will begin to manifest themselves via a direction shift on the “fascist compass” – after all if The Kremlin can’t convince Ukraine to don its yoke once more, insuring Ukrainian public opinion sees the EU as increasingly fascist will dampen any desire to fully head into that fold.

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