Casus Belli in Slavyansk?April 21, 2014
Well it appears that in Slavyansk last night/early hours of this morning an incident has occurred between the pro and anti irregular forces of ideological/political lines. The incident left dead and injured who favoured The Kremlin orientated/proposed solution. The attackers allegedly far right nationalists.
Naturally The Kremlin was swift to comment on the incident – “The Russian side is outraged with the provocation, which indicates that Kiev is unwilling to put in check and disarm nationalists and extremists.”
I will duly note that no comment was made regarding the deaths that occurred in Mariupol amongst those also supporting The Kremlin orientated/proposed solution when they were repelled attempting to storm a Ukrainian military establishment.
Anyway, as a recent and rather extensive opinion poll yesterday throughout the south and east of Ukraine once again refuted Kremlin statements regarding the overwhelming desire for federalisation, concerns over rights relating to the Russian language etc – clearly allowing the presidential elections and any referendum upon federalisation will not be in the interests of The Kremlin if held.
Now whilst this incident may genuinely be a case of pro verses anti ideological/political supporters resulting in death and injury – it also raises the possibility of a false flag incident – very much as the shelling of Mainila was, and that allowed the then USSR to withdraw from a non-aggression pact with Finland and led to The Winter War.
Unless public opinion radically changes before 25th May and any elections, The Kremlin may decide it wants to find a way to withdraw from the commitments it entered into in Geneva last week, and then act to prevent a public and internationally recognised and reported tactical defeat at the ballot box – not that it will change Kremlin goals.
A casus belli – genuine, manufactured or coerced? Every such incident will now continually raise that spectre.
A need for a timely, competent and transparent police investigation into each and every incident that will probably follow is now required. And one that is perceived to be independent by victims, offenders and the public at large alike.