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Dayton revisited? Ukraine

April 4, 2014

A few months ago, I wrote an entry with the penultimate paragraph “The possibility of two governments for two regions within a single state? – How is Bosnia-Herzegovinia rubbing along with that system?

Thus I intimated that a possible Kremlin plan is to create a variant of Bosnia-Herzegovinia.

A Ukraine that nominally and geographically remains a united Ukraine – and yet via The Kremlin demand for a federal Ukraine, complete with the federalised Oblasts being able to direct their own foreign policy, it is attempting to create a nation loosely based upon the Bosnia-Herzegovina model.  A model that would insure de facto control over, at the very least eastern Oblasts, whilst others will be more free to head westward but never actually arrive lest the nation formally divide.

A model that would allow for significant control without ever having the need to go to the expense of annexation with the subsequent political, economic, and possibly military costs associated with such an act.  A model that creates protectorates in all but name.

A model in which permanent instability is but at the whim of The Kremlin but firmly keeps Ukraine within The Kremlin’s influence – some parts much more than others.

So, how long before The Kremlin raises this model with western interlocutors and tries to hoist the western nations by its own Dayton Agreement petard?

If the western plan was so good 19 years ago – which is a matter of debate – it should work equally as well, even if tweaked a little, in Ukraine today.  The Kremlin will support trying the model the western nations insisted upon in 1995 and make vocal objection to any hesitance by the creators of Dayton.  How do the western nations get out of that without losing face?

I think perhaps that position and model should be pondered a little more seriously than the cursory mention I gave it – as that link shows, some are now pondering the issue more seriously.

Certainly any perceived advantages from Dayton-esque proposals that may yet come – and hopefully will be robustly dismissed by Ukraine – should be evaluated against the disadvantages of Kremlin meddling in and around The Republika Srpska that have resulted from that model.

Though I quipped “How is Bosnia-Herzegovinia rubbing along with that system?” a few months ago, somewhat rhetorically and sarcastically – how is it rubbing along, and just what shenanigans have been Kremlin induced there?  What has the modus operandi been?  What were the results?  How to prevent or mitigate against the same in Ukraine?

Can Ukraine – with the help of friendly nations – manage to clean out the infiltrators and corrupt from the institutions of State swiftly and to a point whereby they will be strong enough and patriotic enough to withstand Kremlin approaches?

 

One comment

  1. Putin already called Obama with the federalism demand. In a nutshell, the US can help pressure Ukraine to rewrite its constitution for federalist states, and thereby claim a victory for diplomacy, or Russia will see it happens on its own. Half of our Congress is saying the demand is a pretext to invasion, the other half is waiting for someone to tell them what they should think.

    In the interim, we’re sending a few naval vessels to the Baltic shores, though Germany is objecting, claiming any military buildup on the US’s part will lead to Russian buildup and possible invasion. At least that’s what our media is reporting.



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