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And what of the (major) oligarchs?

April 2, 2014

I write this entry in the midst of some rather disastrous technical difficulties that have completely removed what I had planned to publish today – along with pending comments, spam and trash and anything else written but unpublished.  I strongly suspect the error is not entirely technical, but the problem can be found somewhere between keyboard and chair.  My infamous lack of IT skills strike once more!

Anyway, onward!  I shall instead I will swiftly offer a few less than erudite thoughts, rattled off in haste before fate determines this entry too is aborted prior to its delivery.

After looking at yesterday’s entry, quite obviously there are really only a few strong presidential candidates – as much as Darth Vader becoming president of Ukraine would appeal for a brief and juvenile moment.

Interestingly, no sooner had the Petro Poroshenko, Solidarity/UDAR pact been announced, did Sergei Liovochkin publicly endorse it.  This is interesting not because he was an advisor to Viktor Yanukovych – that is irrelevant – but because he is a very close ally of Dmitry Firtash.

Reading between the political lines, this would certainly appear to be endorsement from Group DF for the Poroshenko/Klitschko. Solidarity/UDAR pact.  No doubt many will see it as such.

It therefore raises the questions as to what Rinat Akhmetov and his SCM vehicle will do.  They are unlikely to be that keen to see Mr Posorshenko and Solidarity/UDAR do outstandingly well given the Group DF endorsement.

oligachy

Whilst both Dmitry Firtash and Rinat Akhmetov may have been Party Regions oligarchy, that in no way removes the competition between them.

However, it seems extremely unlikely that Mr Akhmetov or SCM will back Yulia Tymoshenko and Batkivshchyna – though hell may indeed freeze over one day.

Considering that Mr Akhmetov has seemingly decided Party Regions will keep a low profile at this election and thus Mikhail Dobkin rather than Sergey Tigipko or Yuri Boiko has been forced/endorsed as Party of Regions presidential candidate to lead them toward the electoral abyss they are to face, it leaves Mr Akhmetov in a somewhat difficult position.

His options seem limited to frustrating the Group DF support for Petro Poroshenko.  Even if he has nothing against Petro Poroshenko – and as far as I am aware there is no serious grievous issue between them – quite clearly if Dmitry Firtash says “white” then Rinat Akhmetov is very likely to say “black” in the continuing personal sparring behind the scenes.

Whether Ms Tymoshenko or Mr Poroshenko win, either will now have to deal as best they can with this difficult inter-oligarchical relationship, as well as all the other critical issues facing the nation.  Ms Tymoshenko is surely better suited to that confrontation if the result is to be one of a winner and loser – though as she dislikes both men and they her, who should win?  Mr Poroshenko is far better suited if there is to be a negotiated – if unstable – peace.

Neither really should have to deal with such an issue considering the other dire issues that face the nation – but it appears political energy will need to be wasted in having to do so.

 

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