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Amassing untimely failures – A tactic for victory?

January 10, 2014

The opposition parties have made much ado of making early presidential elections in October of 2014 their latest mission – yet we all know there will be no early elections, and March 2015, as scheduled, will remain the polling date.

It will be yet another perceived failure – this time within 6 months of the scheduled election date – in the eyes of the public.  Not a particularly good time to continue racking up easily avoided failures it has to be said.

Thus far, collectively and individually, they have failed to gain any significant traction amongst those at євромайдан too.

A few days ago I wrote a very popular entry – labeled a “Must Read” by some very influential people – relating to the very many questions to be answered before answering the question of sanctions.

The US Senate has answered the question of sanctions – as far as the cries for implementing them for the recent historical events – and the possibility of imposing them over future direct governmental efforts of a similar method – for those calling for them.

Resolution (7) says it all in reply to the calls of Messrs Yatseniuk and Klitschko with regard to events that have already occurred:

(7) notes that in the event of further state violence against peaceful protesters, the President and Congress should consider whether to apply targeted sanctions, including visa bans and asset freezes, against individuals responsible for ordering or carrying out the violence.

Thus sanctions clearly will not be imposed over past actions, but they may be considered if such action occurs again in the future – fair warning.  Expecting anything more robust from the EU Member States is unlikely for the reasons I laid out in the link above.

In short, the calls from Messrs Yatseniuk and Klitschko have failed regarding the imposing of sanctions on those they deem responsible for State sanctioned violence at the end of November and early December.  Yet another easily anticipated (and possibly perceived as) failure that can be directly pinned on them politically amongst the voting Ukrainian constituency.

As for Resolution (6) within the US document – well due to the usual slipshod legislation created by less than capable legislators from all parties relating to the 19th December rushed law exempting demonstrators from criminal prosecution of mass actions –  “swift” seems unlikely when dealing with parts of the Senate Resolution – as this article clearly shows, with the corroboration of opposition Batkivshchnya MP Olexander Kozhel.

We heard from the Attorney General and his deputies, that they can not fulfill the law, because there is no written procedure for its implementation.  Two and a half hours we were shown how they opened a case with the law and how we must provide mechanisms to close them.

A high specialized court for civil and criminal cases believe that the law can not be put into practice due to lack of legislative mechanisms for its implementation.

Bravo the RADA, yet another – in an incredibly long list – extremely poorly thought out legislative act!  Another failure.

As a result, the PGO’s office and political parties have agreed that today they will start a working group of lawyers and prosecutors to decide how the law should be carried out and , if necessary, prepare a supplement to it providing mechanisms to make it actually fit for the purpose it was written –  Any supplement presumably needing to pass through the RADA and to the President for signature again.

Legislate at speed – repent at leisure – and pass all the resolutions you want, if the law is as incredibly poorly drafted as this one is, “swift” is never going to be the outcome!

Does anybody want to place bets on the effectiveness of the “national strike” called for tomorrow by the opposition leaders?  A qualified success or another failure waiting to happen.

Thus we have answers to some questions and await answers to others – none of which necessarily help when it comes to what happens next in an atmosphere of zero trust.

Quite how long the opposition will follow a policy of short-term skirmishes doomed to failure – all of which have a cumulative affect when it comes to perception of their ability – rather than generating and orating policy platforms that will have resonance with the public for the March 2015 elections remains unclear.

Perhaps clearly defined positions and policies will only occur once they have finished their infighting for the seat of ultimate power amongst themselves, in the knowledge that their own coalition partners will not steal or trash their ideas once that decision is finally made.

There seems to be a significant lack of strategy – unless it is a secret – and in the absence of strategy, continued ad hoc and poorly thought out skirmishes doomed to failure, appear to be the direction the opposition will continue to pursue.

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