Archive for December 24th, 2013

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CSTO consider Євромайдан a threat

December 24, 2013

It seems that Євромайдан has been targeted by the (Russian led) Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and identified as a threat similar to “colour revolutions” – which it quantifies as “a special model of the coup using political, information, communication , moral and psychological methods of influence, and its ultimate goal – the complete disintegration of the state, the change of power and the establishment of foreign control over the country” – according to a Kommersant article.

Apparently those pesky “Western opponents of the Russian Federation manipulate international institutions election observation , actively influence the minds of Internet users, through NGOs and the media form a distorted picture of public sentiment.”  – Blimey, I didn’t know we still had it in us to do that collectively.  The EU normally works on the lowest common denominator agreed by all, and it would take a long time to reach such a consensus as described above – particularly when such nefarious deeds are normally a very sovereign affair.

But a threat to the CSTO?  Well of course – both in terms of regional instability to use a broad – and very real –  expression, but also the casuistic democracy gene may infiltrate CSTO society with renewed vigor.  A terribly bad thing to happen for those sat atop a power vertical – the fall is often unsightly from such lofty heights.

The recommendations of this CSTO summit?  The “generation of counter-propaganda tools“.

None of this is a surprise of course.  The only questions are once those counter-propaganda tools have been generated are they used defensively or pro-actively?  Are they strictly used domestically, or projected?

Does it matter?

These days acting pro-actively seems to be the de facto definition of defence.  Perhaps the question would be better worded as to whether they will be used passively or aggressively – home or abroad?

Of course the task is now to counter-propaganda the counter propaganda.

Now, I will wish those readers who celebrate Christmas on 25th December, a very, very merry Christmas!

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A step backwards – Lutsenko & Tymoshenko appointed to HOM

December 24, 2013

Well, needless to say after my entry yesterday, I cannot be any less pleased with the leadership appointments of “National Association Maidan” or “Громадське об’єднання “Народне об’єднання Майдан (HOM).

And I am not alone.

Disappointment was clearly evident at Євромайдан Odessa when the names became known.

Facebook, twitter and VK were also filled with clearly disillusioned Євромайдан supporters.  I won’t link or embed examples but feel free to view the conversations and statements on my twitter or Facebook feeds for confirmation if you so feel the need.

Yesterday I questioned the necessity and wisdom of Mr Lutsenko having a high profile position within any leadership – but to include Yulia Tymoshenko amongst the leadership as well goes beyond incredulous.  Reactions yesterday clearly understanding that the chance to increase the base of support across Ukraine just became a lot harder in degrees of magnitude.

Quite how appointing two high profile (ex)politicians, socially divisive in the extreme, and significantly associated with failing to deliver democracy, rule of law, reduction in corruption etc after the 2004/5 “Orange Revolution”, and generally throwing asunder a tide of goodwill from society – is seen to be anything other than an anchor to an inglorious and ineffective past takes some working out.

Why is the new leadership so light on civic and civil society leaders, and yet so reminiscent of a failed BYuT senior leadership circa 2009 (plus Klitschko and Tyahnybok)?

It was a decision that was obviously going to deflate and disillusion many Євромайдан protesters/supporters.

It is a clear indication that the current opposition leaders still don’t get it – and the politicians of “BYuT past” never got it, and still don’t.  The Євромайдан protesters/supporters are not there for the opposition politicians – quite the reverse – the opposition politicians are currently there for the protesters, attempting to ride the wave of their discontent.

Such was the collective  Євромайдан  protester/supporter face-palm yesterday, there is now further discontent with what was already seen to be an ineffective and strategy-less opposition.  Quite simply why was the leadership not chosen to be more representative?

It seems a matter of time before  Євромайдан shuns the self-appointed leadership of Народне об’єднання Майдан – if  Народне об’єднання Майдан leadership doesn’t disillusion and kill off Євромайдан over the coming weeks and months anyway.

That said, as the politicians didn’t make Євромайдан, they may not be able to break it either – no matter how hapless they are.

As I wrote yesterday, the singular positive of HOM is a central administrative node.  Its leadership did not need to be stacked with politicians at the expense of civic and civil society members.

Time will tell – but if the reactions I witnessed and read yesterday are anything to go by, a harmonious partnership between  Народне об’єднання Майдан and the Євромайдан protesters is going to be difficult to maintain.

Like many others, my support for the ideals at the core of  Євромайдан will robustly remain – how can it not, I am a democracy advocate.

My support for  Народне об’єднання Майдан leadership however, is unlikely to gather much, if any, momentum at all given its current composition.  I know I will not be alone in that.

I suppose the Народне об’єднання Майдан leadership can now busy itself with those administrative issues of producing “membership cards” for this now official organisation, and deciding upon what criteria must be met by people to join etc in the absence of a plan of any substance.

After all, there is no need for a Народне об’єднання Майдан leadership if the plan is to do little more than simply wait until the elections in March 2015 gathering in large but peaceful numbers – that already happens.  The new leadership will have to been seen to be busy doing something to justify its existence – so why not membership cards and deciding the criteria about who can and cannot join the movement?

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