Archive for December 2nd, 2013

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Doing the math – A vote of No Confidence in Gov Ukraine soon?

December 2, 2013

Having written about the split within Party of Regions yesterday -again – (it’s been coming a long time), matters seem to have progressed swiftly.

It would appear that several oligarchs may be about to seize the moment and, as I framed it yesterday “….the party regains some control over its leadership, rather than the leadership running completely amok and expecting the party to blindly follow along trying to justify actions as is happening now.

Now the oligarchy are not “the party” per se, and it would appear not all the oligarchy – at the time of writing – are prepared to act to either overtly rein in, or be party to, the ousting of the current national leadership.  It does appear that some may well be prepared to do so however.

I understand that Messrs Firtash and Horoshkovsky have recalled “their deputies” from the Party of Regions effective immediately.  That would be about 12 each.  Sergei Lovochki, who has already resigned as the President’s Chief of Staff, is to withdraw “his” deputies from the Party of Regions also.

Add to that the resignations of Inna Bohoslovska, David Zhvania and Nicholas Rudkovskiy from the Party of Regions (and not to ignore the principled resignations of Natalya Holub at the Ukrainian Embassy in Canada) and we must start to seriously look at the RADA voting numbers.

Opposition MPs, plus independent MPs, plus those who have resigned from Party of Regions, plus those MPs owned by the aforementioned oligarchs gets a number of perhaps 10 – 12 MPs short of winning a vote of no confidence and the removal of the Azarov government.

There is then rumour of another 15 – 20 MPs that are supposedly going to resign from the Party of Regions on Monday from Vinnytsia, Odessa and a few other oblasts.

That theoretically, and disqualifying any duplication in the MP number count, may form a foundation large enough to win a vote of no confidence.

The next 48 hours will be very interesting indeed as to whether that number swells, or some shrink back from their current stance.

I certainly hope that number will become clear within the next 48 hours for the sake of Євромайдан momentum, political opportunity not only forward the direction of the country irrespective of current leadership and in doing so allow for Party of Regions to reclaim control of (and possible remove) its leadership, but also due to the fact that in 72 hours I am going on holiday – again – and would like to leave you dear readers on an entry that is something of a political – and yet not quite decided – crescendo.

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