Archive for July 16th, 2013

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Shrinking demographics – 33-36 million forecast for 2050 in Ukraine

July 16, 2013

Rather unsurprisingly Ukrainian demographics are forecast to shrink to between 33 – 36 million by 2050 from the current 45/46 million.  Unsurprisingly because European demographics are going to shrink by 2050.

With demographics, it is often wise to look at the big data to understand that of the small more comprehensively.

In fact by 2050 the “western world” (Europe+ USA+Canada+ Australia etc) will account for only 1.5 trillion people from the estimated 10 trillion people on the planet – at which point, as ably displayed by the peerless Hans Rosling, the numbers of humans on the planet will plateau.

http://embed.bambuser.com/broadcast/2996396?autoplay=1

(Watch from 34.18 onwards – prior to that it is a waste of your life)

Should this be of concern or should it be welcomed?

Though I am not a woman, I would suggest it would be welcomed by women in particular – after all, for reasons of automation negating the “muscular mans world” to almost parity, by removing the need for physical strength and replacing it with joy-pad controlled  hydraulics, pressing a pre-programmed computer button to shape steel and the numerous other ways hard physical labour has been replaced by machine, plus improved health care and individual control of reproduction, reducing the need to have 10 children for 3 to survive – demographics will decline correspondingly with female emancipation/opportunity.

As Asia and Africa become more industrially advanced, child birth is likely to reduce there, just as it has in the “western world” for the same reasons – hence the anticipated plateau of the number of humans reaching approximately 10 trillion.

The question therefore facing the Ukrainian government is not only how to deal with and maximise output from shrinking national demographics, but also how to manage and maximise Ukrainian commodities and human capital in amongst an expanding – then plateauing – human race.

For policy makers on a global scale, the question is how to manage the planets resources to sustain 10 trillion.

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