Archive for June 11th, 2013

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Momentum in the release of Tymoshenko?

June 11, 2013

I have written several times about the possible release of Tymoshenko – and more specifically the timing and implications of doing so over the past few months, speculating that thee summer RADA recess would be a realistic time if it were to happen at all prior to the Vilnius summit.

It seems that others are also are speculating now, at a slightly later date in September – based upon comments from within the EU and Ukraine recently.

It is not secret that the electoral law and prosecutors code are on the RADA timetable for September for amendment in line with the EU normative, all current cases against Tymoshnko officially are “stopped” (if not closed), leaving the issue of Tymoshenko’s incarceration as a stumbling block for signatures to be exchanged in Vilnius as planned.

In short, the statements quoted in the article to form this theory add up to the old idea of releasing Tymoshenko on the grounds of ill health and sending her to Germany for treatment.  All the statements do give some plausibility to this political maneuvering.

However – for this to occur, it still needs the goodwill of Tymoshenko to agree.  Needless to say there are no statements from Tymoshenko that infer her agreement or otherwise.  That said it is doubtful that Tymoshenko would jeopardise the signing of the documents in Vilnius when she so ardently supports it – whether she is released or not.

Perhaps the bigger question, should she enter voluntary exile to facilitate these political maneuvers is just how long she would remain in Germany for treatment?  If released at the end of September, one would presume she would remain in Germany until after the signing of the AA in November if for no other reason than to add credibility to the seriousness of her illness in the eyes of the public and global audience.

It maybe she will be sent for treatment and not released officially, thus claiming asylum in Germany whilst there, but I do not think she would go for such a deal and neither would the EU – despite the rhetoric relating to the aspirations of 46 million Ukrainians being sacrificed at the alter of the Tymoshenko case, not to mention facilitating the rebuilding of the USSR under another name, as some within the EU frame the issue, should signatures not occur in November.

The next question, should this all play out as the linked article believes, is what will happen to the United Opposition upon her return?  So polarising and so destructive a force is she, that it seems unlikely they would remain “united” for very long should she try to reenter opposition politics as a major decision making figure – and her ego would not allow any other type of entry.

Anyway – an interesting article that is at least plausible when built around the recent statements made.

So whether I am right having stated the beginning of September – or not at all – or others are right in stating her release will occur by the end of September is a matter of splitting hairs.  It seems we agree that September is the month to watch for any finale in relation to Tymoshenko prior to Vilnius.

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