Archive for April 28th, 2012

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Dnipropetrovsk bombings – Amongst the victims will be truth

April 28, 2012

Firstly before saying anything about the events of yesterday and the four bombs that went off around Dnipropetrovsk injuring 27, hosptialising 25, requiring the amputation of an arm and serious injuries to a young woman, it is important to show sympathy to the victims of this crime.

They are the innocent, the unsuspecting and the undeserved recipients of injuries and scars that will always stay with them.  It is a blessing that nobody died.

Sympathy may not help, but nevertheless it is given and necessarily so.

Now, the investigations are of course on-going and have been taken over by the SBU and security service apparatus.  4 crime scenes, numerous people at each trampling crime scenes, possibly some on-lookers visiting more than one and cross-contaminating the scenes – who knows?

It will be not be quick, nor should it be, when it comes to dealing with the evidence.

Nobody has claimed responsibility, unsurprisingly.  Ukraine is not really an obvious target for external terrorism  and if it should be chosen, Dnipropetrovsk would not really be the obvious choice.  Most eyes will therefore be looking inwards for the perpetrators of this abhorrent act.

It is much too soon to jump to conclusions about who and why, although that does not stop it happening of course.

Several opposition MPs are already claiming the current government are involved.  Oppostion MP Anatoliy Grytsenko does not mince his words here.  

On twitter Andriy Schevchenko, an opposition MP from a different party made similar inferences:  Є підтвердження – призначено позачергове засідання Ради: Дніпропетровськ і … приведення до присяги Лутковської. Хто б сумнівався?!

Now, such political accusations are common place.  Both current government and opposition see conspiracy everywhere in the actions of their counterparts.  In fact the opposition often see conspiracy amongst other opposition parties.  It is a fact of Ukrainian political life that those of us here are well used to.

The fact it is the home city of Yulia Tymoshenko currently languishing in a Kharkiv jail is also an obvious consideration although it maybe of no importance as matters progress.

It is not the first time.  In autumn last year a similar instance occurred with the same modus operandi of bombs in bins in Dnipropetrovsk.  These however, detonated at a time when there were far less people likely to be around although one man died.  They were indeed more for dramatic results rather than destruction and injury despite the death.

In January this year a similar instance in Makiyivka, although there is rumour that these explosions were part of an attempt to blackmail the State for money by those responsible.  As they were never caught, that motivation  remains a rumour.

Maybe coincidently, maybe not, there are reports of two bank robberies in Dnipropetrovsk whilst the police were all rather busy.

Should these instances all be connected then it is not likely that the accusations and inferences of the above mentioned and quoted opposition MPs would stand up.  As yet no connection has been made to my knowledge and thus each instance must stand on its own account.  After all, a bomb in a bin is not a difficult modus operandi to copy and the really technical and interesting bits that may or may not tie one or more instances together are not going to be put in the public domain for the likes of my to ruminate over.

It has to be said the nature of the bombs do not seem, at least initially, specifically designed to kill.  That may infer they were designed for dramatics rather than destruction.  That is also a seemingly common feature of the three instances I have mentioned.

However, whilst the timing of these abhorrent events may well be “helpful” for the current government as these opposition MPs claim, given the sheer scale of own goals the current authorities are scoring through bad policy, unintended consequences and absolute incompetents, this could have happened at any time over the past month or two and been equally well timed.

It could also happen anytime between now and October and would probably be seen as equally well timed.  I have little doubt the current government will continue to score own goals in the months ahead.

The problem with the political accusations and any subsequent and obvious denials, is that nobody trusts the current government or the opposition MPs.   Quite frankly no matter what a politician says, regardless of party, the vast majority of Ukrainians will not believe them outright.  The Ukrainian post-Soviet skepticism with Ukrainian politicians runs deep and with good cause.  Statements from politicians on all sides are more likely to be accepted on the balance of probability they may (or not) be accurate and true.

Quite how matters will be interpreted outside Ukraine remains to be seen.  Anyone with any sense would not take any political point-scoring statements at face value.

Far better to concentrate on the victims for now, as nefarious and murky dealings in Ukraine have a habit of coming out for a public airing eventually, as Ex-President Kuchma, ex-Prime Minister Tymoshenko and no doubt when the current authorities become “ex”, they too will discover.  That is if there is any political involvement in this case.

Let’s see if anyone is caught for these crimes and what they have to say – although would you believe what they have to say having been in SBU custody?

Yet another unnamed victim in all this will be trust.  Trust gets a kicking in Ukraine on a daily basis.  It simply no longer exists in any meaningful way between the political class (of any party) and society.  It maybe that the EU policy of engagement with Ukrainian civil society and not the political classes will prove to be a very smart policy move indeed.

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