Archive for March 12th, 2012

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Something a bit fishy within the (almost) united opposition

March 12, 2012

There is something a bit fishy going on between Yulia Tymoshenko’s BYuT and Arseniy Yatseniuk’s Front for Change political parties.

It is called COD.

That would be COD as is Committee to Oppose Dictatorship rather than the fish that swims in the sea.

However you will recall this post of mine  from a month ago where I stated that the falling out between the opposition parties would lay within the consolidation of a single entry list.  As seems quite evident, that has still to be agreed.

Also worthy of note is the statement that Ms Tymoshenko has taken a decidedly cooler attitude towards Arseniy Yatseniuk, something that probably has a lot to do with his party closing on hers in the polls amongst the opposition parties.

Should he get too close, it will be interesting to see if Ms Tymoshenko’s ego will be happy to play second fiddle to another party or whether she will try to call the whole united opposition attempt off.

She does have previous for breaking such agreements even at the last minute, as Oleh Rybachuk has witnessed “In August 2005, one year after the Orange Revolution, the two were fighting and I tried to broker a deal between them. Each agreed to fire three antagonistic people from their teams, hold a press conference the next day and promise not to oppose one other. It was a truce.  

Tymoshenko reneged on the agreement and that night tried to muster support to remove Yushchenko. He found out and it has been war ever since between the two.

I blame them both.  Politics is cold blooded, not a marriage. If you are seen together like they were they had no right to do this.  I resigned because the President and Prime Minister were behaving like teenagers. It was embarrassing to the country and they embarrassed Ukraine in front of NATO and the European Union which wanted to accept Ukraine in as members but needed to hear from one voice.”

As I have written here many times, the biggest single factor against any successful uniting of the opposition is Ms Tymoshenko herself.  She is far too divisive, authoritarian, undemocratic and simply not trusted by others in opposition.  It maybe worthy of contemplation that despite her numerous public calls for unification prior to her jailing, no such calls were welcomed by other opposition parties.   Now she is in jail and less egotistic BYuT members are the interlocutors with the other opposition parties,  progress between opposition parties appears to be more collective albeit very slowly.

Nevertheless, let us see what happens with COD.  The saying goes that a fish rots from its head downwards.  As the head is currently severed from the body due to being in jail, maybe, just maybe, the body will be spared the rot.  However if Yatseniuk’s Front for Change continues to close the gap on Tymoshenko’s BYuT, you can expect her to call the whole thing off and attempt to stab him in the back right up until the very last moment.

That won’t come as any surprise to Mr Rybachuk, me, or anybody else should it happen, but it is rather perverse that the opposition are far closer to uniting now Ms Tymoshenko is in jail, not because of her her jailing as those who know little about the workings of Ukrainian politics might think, but because she is out of the way and thus is causing far less problems for the opposition factions in their dialogue.

Quite possibly the worst thing that can happen as far as opposition unity is concerned, would be her release, as they would surely distance themselves from her upon her release just as they did before her incarceration.

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