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Tymoshenko and Lutsenko’s parties begin merger

December 30, 2011

As Yulia Tymoshenko and Yuri Lutsenko both sit in jail for misuse of office, their opposition parties have began to unite in preparation for the forth coming parliamentary elections in October 2012.

Probably a wise move by Lutsenko’s People’s Self Defence Party as there was not much hope of it reaching the 5% threshold whereas Tymoshenko’s Batkivschyna Party will easily pass that figure as will Yatseniuk’s Front for Change opposition parties.

Let’s see which other very small parties will jump onto the  Batkivschyna Party merger scheme so their leaders can stay in the RADA rather than face falling under the 5% threshold and political oblivion.

You can see why the new election law was one of the few PoR laws that the Batkivschyna Party supported this year, as they and Yatseniuk stand to gain from eliminating splits in the opposition vote to minor parties.

Unfortunately for  Batkivschyna, I don’t see Yatseniuk or his party joining in and he is the biggest vote taker from their party.  Batkivschyna need Yatseniuk and his party to form a majority government in the future unless they ally with the ruling PoR which seems highly unlikely.

Yatseniuk has nothing to gain from any such merger and anybody who thinks this is the beginning of opposition political unity will soon discover this to be a false dawn.

It is a matter of survival for some small opposition politicians whose parties will fall foul of the new 5% vote threshold.  For Lutsenko, it is hard to remain a relevant jailed/martyred opposition leader if your party goes into political oblivion as his undoubtedly would in October 2012.

This is a case of individual politicians political survival thanks to the 5% threshold in the new election law (which was supported by PoR and Tymoshenko’s parties when it past).  When a RADA seat costs so much money to buy and the entry to the most elite insider dealing business club in Ukraine is at stake, this is a case of doing what is necessary to stay at the trough.    No more and no less.

One comment

  1. Sadly there was an interesting comment to this post but it was made from a commercial email address which I do not allow as this is an advertising free zone.

    I would encourage the commentator to write again from a non-commercial address.

    We maybe approaching a new year, but the old rules of no advertising still apply.



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