Archive for November 21st, 2010

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Tis the eve of the EU-Ukraine summit

November 21, 2010

Well dear readers, I wait to analyse the words coming from the EU and Ukraine in the next few days.

Could be interesting.

So let’s play the guess what will be said game.

EU –  Making good and steady progress on the Deep Free Trade Agreement and expect to sign it off next year (implying timeline on Ukraine) just in time for the run up to the 2012 elections.

Rule of law – We acknowledge you have made some structural changes within the Rule of Law, some of which the Venice Commission like and others they still think can be improved, but generally moves in the right direction…… if you would only do something to guarantee the independence of the judiciary by not interefering.  Yes of course we know that all previous administrations have interfered in the legal system but there comes a time when you have to cede some independence to the legal system.  We are really rather hoping it will happen whilst you are in charge (just like we hoped it would happen under the last chap).

Freedom of the press is still an issue for us.  Yes we recognise that there are issues in Italy, Hungary, Romania and France all making tremendous strides backwards but we are talking about you.

Corruption – Yes again we recognise that for the 16th year in a row our own accounts have not been signed off by the auditors citing 33% or more fraudulent use of grant mone but they are being unreasonable and stating that the accounts will not be signed off until there is only a 3% questionable audit trail.  (You know better than many, to facilitate a gravy train to get things done people have to be paid off some how.  Cronyism is how the world works as we all know in politics and big business)

Democracy – Yes of course you Mr Yanukovych are the only democratically elected person at this meeting but we must lecture you about democracy…..even though everybody else in this meeting was appointed and not elected.

Human Rights – We have to raise even though some of our members seem to have been breaking them on a regular basis in collusion with other non-EU nations whterh it relates to wars or African immigration…..anyway, let’s move on.  They have been mentioned.

By the way, the reforms you are doing seem to be going quite well.  The IMF seem pleased.  We hope you will continue with them despite them being unpopular.  I mean look at Europe, there aren’t too many happy electorates around given the austerity measures everyone is doing.  Just do cave into public pressure and be poplist like the last lot.

Given our experience in Hungary, Czeck Republic and Poland, if you are going to impliment some form of Balcerowicz Plan, we suggest that the FTA is in place before the new Tax Code removes State controlled pricing, remoes subsidies to currently State owned assets meaning unemployment and also trying to drive the black economy white.

Remember it took 3 years for the markets to recover and reach normaility in those nations and for the markets to absord the unemployed from such a Shock Therapy as encouraged by the likes of Jeffery Sachs.  In the long run it eventually works out OK but you need to have at least the opportunities in place through trade to allow for entities to be created and take up the unemployment slack.  OK?

We of course fully understand you position but what we are saying is expected of us to be said back home OK?

Now, that’s the bad news.

We are pleased that you will join the Energy community officially but please, the EU is not going to help modernise your gas transport system.  You have been asking since 2002 and we have shown little interest.  You have to consider that we have already done deals with Russia to circumnavigate you and are heavily contractually committed now.  Our advice is to seperate out the assests of Naftogaz so the GTS stands alone and then there might be an EU company who would be interested.

The good news is that we have decided to give the action plan for Visa-free travel to the EU.  We appreciate this will be popular with the Ukrainian public and if you are really smart then we could have it done in time for the 2012 football and before your parliamentary elections.  We do value the stability that currently exists here politically.  You have no idea how frustrating it was having to deal with the last leadership who spend all their time trying to veto each other.

It would be so useful to have another 6 or 7 years of stability in Ukraine just to sort out Visa-free travel, free trade nd an association agreement.  We may even offer full membership when the time appears to be right – but understand that the current members are broke (well most of them are) and are busy bailing each other out, so do not expect it to happen for a decade or so ok?

By the way, Ukraine is posting some cracking growth figures – nice work.

Croissant anyone?

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