A day of no surprises in Ukraine – EU/Ukraine summit

On the evening of the EU/Ukraine summit which has been consistently billed with more expectations than were ever possible since events relating to Ms Tymoshenko charged the dynamics of the EU/Ukrainian relationship, I was not in the slightest bit keen to discover the outcome in a timely way.

In fact I went out to dinner with an Interpol Ukrainian liaison officer and talked human rights, Euro 2012, policing and migration.  This I thought, would be far more interesting than a summit that would simply announce the successful end to the negotiations and no more.

It is what I have been predicting for four months or so here on the blog and there was nothing new to make me consider my position was misaligned.  I expected no surprises and I was right to do so.  Herman Van Rompuy’s subsequent speech was so predictable I could have written it myself in late September and there would have been no changes to it prior to delivery two days ago.

Paragraphs such as this written at the beginning of November now read rather well ” In the meantime I am led to believe that Ukraine is preparing to take a step back from the DCFTA and AA with the EU regardless, and may not be in a rush to initial these agreements anyway until there is more of a consensus within the EU over the prospects of Ukrainian membership in the future.”

With revised Russian gas deals still pending, initialing this document on 19th December, whether Ms Tymoshenko was in jail or not, may have been  particularly ill-timed.  It may be that some in power consider it is going to be easier to get a better deal out of Russia before any consideration over the release of Tymoshenko and the initialing, signing and ratification process commences with the EU.  Such a process is after all not swift, whereas concluding a revised deal with Russia over gas is likely to occur in a more immediate time frame.

A case of economic and neighbourly priorities in the immediate term when it comes to getting results.  Ms Tymoshenko and the EU can wait a little longer, a revised Russian gas deal cannot.  As predicted the AA and DCFTA will now sit on shelves in Ukraine and the EU to be dusted down sometime in the future and brought back to life at a far better time for both parites.

In short, I made the right decision to go out to dinner with the Interpol chap.  More so as Vladimir paid the bill as well!

Before I forget, that sticky bit of text relating to Ukraine’s eventual membership and the EU’s unwillingness to include such wording?  It was resolved as follows:

The EU “recognises Ukraine’s European choice and aspirations and confirms its European identity”

Reliable rumour is that the initialing of this now completed document will happen in February 2012 although nothing much will happen thereafter until the October 2012 elections which one assumes will have to be whiter than white as far as procedures and observers are concerned.

That is again something I stated here back on 16 August ” …….hardly anybody amongst the diplomatic luminary circles really thinks of Tymoshenko as a champion of democracy and thus she is not as relevant as free and fair (and internationally recognised as such) elections in October 2012. Those elections, rather than her fate, are therefore the key event to the ratification of the DCFTA and AA.”

Still, gazing into a crystal ball over such principled issues, it is hardly difficult to come up with an accurate prediction (even if made 14 months before the event).

That said, to progress that logic further, with the agreement on the shelf and initialed in February 2012, one can quite easily see it staying there until 2016 to allow Ms Tymoshenko to remain in jail and Mr Yanukovych  to get reelected as President.

That being the case, no matter how technically clean, transparent and honest the October 2012 elections may be, with Ms Tymoshenko in jail and unable to participate, by default (following EU sensibilities over the issue) any result will not be deemed free and fair because she cannot participate, even if her party does particularly well.

All idle speculation for now but should what I write turn out to become reality, it will be yet another day of no surprises in Ukraine.

Fans Consulates – Euro 2012

Now here is an interesting concept.  It maybe not a new idea directly out of the box of new ideas, but it is certainly an interesting concept for Ukraine.

“Embassies for fans” situated along side relevant national embassies –  Blimey!

Me thinks the UK Consulate building is more appropriate than a tent pitched in the back garden of the Ambassadorial residence.  It simply wouldn’t do to have the lawn at the rear trampled and muddied by several thousand drunken Englishmen seeking advice having been conned by a landlord or leggy Ukrainian lovely let alone roughly refused entry into certain Kyiv clubs because they are the wrong colour Englishman.

What is more interesting still, is that it seems the fans will be advising the fans – Really?

One look at the Expat forums in Ukraine or about Ukraine and a fan can find all the bad advice they could possibly wish for.   Some forums are better than others, however the better ones will state what the law is as written and immediately follow it up with a caveat that whilst the law maybe consistent, interpretation and implementation can vary dramatically from region to region.  Thus even 100% correct information provided can in practice be completely irrelevant to circumstances faced by an individual.

Which fans are going to work next to their Embassy’s/Consulates and provide advice that may have absolutely no grounding in fact, or if it is indeed factually correct, proved irrelevant by local authority interpretation?

Would a national Embassy/Consulate want such a facility temporarily planted next to them?  Would it not be easier to simply have those with “issues” speak with the Consular staff as they normally would when in the mire?

Does a “Fans Embassy” situated next to the official Embassy/Consular building provide some form of faux authority and inference that any advice given is representative of the relevant government?

Does Ukraine think that the UK Embassy and Consulate in Kyiv will be completely unprepared for Euro 2012 and not already have plans (and hopefully contingency plans) in place?

Given the advice and personal assistance that the UK Embassy can and does give on a personal level for a UK citizen who comes unstuck in Ukraine, unless a fan loses their passport, dies or gets arrested, there is very little that will be done on their behalf.  Quite rightly too, the UK Embassy is not your mother and there to wipe your nose, read you a bedtime story and tuck you up in bed feeling all snug, warm and loved-up!

What more, exactly, is a “Fans Embassy” going to do?  In fact, considering it can’t replace your passport,  could possibly repatriate your dead body (but nowhere near as efficiently as the official UK FCO representatives), and would not be given access to visit a Brit in a cell, the question should be, what will a “Fans Embassy” actually do?

Hand out maps of Kyiv and Donetsk cities with the name written in English in case you get lost?  Hand out telephone numbers for English speaking lawyers, dentists, doctors and police?  Such things no doubt will be posted on the UK Embassy website temporarily during the competition.  They may even be available as an “App” download if the FCO is on the ball and tech savvy.

What is highly unlikely is that a “Fans Embassy” will get involved with a landlord dispute or mediate a resolution with a leggy Ukrainian lovely who some drunken fan feels wronged by after she has allowed him to wine, dine and dance the night away without the resulting Slavic notch on his bedpost.

A small handbook of Ukrainian/Russian phrases in English to point at when our drunken fan cannot get his tongue around such “complicated” sounding words?

A liaison point for taxis to the airport possibly?

Just what will the “Fans Embassies” be telling the fans that the existing Embassies/Consulates cannot or will not and just what exactly will the official Embassies and Consulates be prepared to let “Fans Embassies” tell those that find their way to them in some inferred “official” capacity?

Is it not going to be easier to simply set up twenty or so temporary “tourist/Euro 2012″ information centres dotted around the hosting cities that have no inferred governmental affiliation to nations of visiting fans and thus any advice given will not result in a tempest of complaints to Foreign Ministries should the advice be “suspect”?

What, exactly, is the point of “Fans Embassies”?

Sticking with Euro 2012…….and nationalism

Following on rather neatly from yesterday’s post about police strategy for the Euro 2012 football tournament, whilst diligently passing a empirical eye over nationalism in Ukraine for those who pay (bless them), I came across a report on football and those to the far-right of the ideology spectrum.

The report covers nationalism showing its face at football matches in Poland and Ukraine from 2009 to the beginning of 2011 in both nations and quite rightly was supported by UEFA during its compilation.

For those who are old enough and remember Britain in the late 1970′s and early 1980′s, it would probably read as any similar report would have read if written about the England and Wales Football League at that time.  In short, rather grim but not an epidemic.

Where it would differ in a comparison to UK football of the late 70′s/early 80′s, is the overt support offered by both Polish and Ukrainian MPs and political parties and the reluctance of  the clubs, police and relevant national league administrations to seriously address the situation.

What should also be noted is that in every stadium in both nations that are home to the fixtures in the Euro 2012 tournament, all are identified as having a regular and hard-core far-right contingent within its attendees.  When it comes to Ukraine, unsurprisingly Lviv and the Svoboda Party get repeated mentions, although only FC Kyiv Arsenal get a mention for having no obvious far-right contingent.  In fact they are mentioned for their active anti-fascist/nationalist/Nazi banners and symbolism.

Given that international sporting events, and particularly football, have historically had numerous violent clashes outside the stadiums both before and after the games in numerous countries, undoubtedly this will be a concern for the politicians on both Poland and Ukraine, not to mention Europol and the local the police at each venue.

However, all things should be kept in perspective.  Just because things can happen doesn’t mean they will when it comes to violence.  As for the symbolism, most people have no idea what they mean once you get past the obvious images such as the swastika.  If you are a Buddhist, that particular symbol has a completely different meaning to a European.

Anyway, back to doing what I am being paid for!

Euro 2012 – Policing and terrorism strategy

Well dear readers, amongst the myriad of websites I trawl through daily looking for things pertinent to Ukraine is Statewatch.

Often there is very little to do with Ukraine, however a quick perusal has led me to the EU handbook “with recommendations for international police cooperation and measures to prevent and control violence and disturbances in connection with an international dimension, in which at least one member state is involved.”

Rather relevant considering Ukraine co-hosts the Euro 2012 football tournament in less than 12 months time.

A little further digging revealed the results of an EU questionnaire relating to “police cooperation with non-EU countries in the area of sports events security“.  Needless to say, Ukraine did respond to the questionnaire.

All jolly interesting.  However, “According to some countries (BE, BG, CY, PO, PL, RO, ES, SE, HU, UA), certain general aspects regarding cooperation with non-EU countries (such as basic standards, recommendations) could be included in the “Football Handbook”, but it would not provide a legal basis for this kind of cooperation”.

So, have the huge legal issues of national sovereignty, cooperation and the necessary sharing of data relating to individuals and groups been overcome?

Ukraine, as highlighted in the national abbreviations above, quite rightly is seeking a legal framework over these issues.  A matter, somewhat made more complicated when the co-hosts happen the be the EU Member State of Poland, with the inherent herds of EU citizens heading into Ukraine and equally non-EU citizens from nations like Ukraine and Russia heading into Poland (and thus the EU), possibly under a temporarily waved Visa regime for the non-EU citizens.

Is this another occasion where the road to good intentions is paved with great big blobs of sticky legalities and where the cracks in the European continent’s pavement can lead to extremely unfortunate outcomes through bureaucratic limitations relating to the flow of information?

It will be terribly difficult to explain or justify unwarranted violence, or worse a terrorist act, due to the flow of intelligence being stuck to a nasty globule of legality on one side of a border.

Anyway, it won’t stop a practical assessment of how things are at the moment thanks to the Ukraine verses Sweden  friendly on Wednesday.

Euro2012 Countdown – Will Ukraine be ready?

Well dear readers in exactly 1 year from today, this will be the eve of the biggest multinational event in Ukraine’s history since independence.

The first games will take place on 8th June 2012, albeit Ukraine has an additional day of preparation as the first games here do not take place until 9th June.

I have to admit, when it was awarded I was pleased for Ukraine to have won the bid with Poland but had serious misgivings about tis ability to host the tournament. Anyone following the media will not it was not only me. FIFA also had major concerns.

Corruption abound of course. The new Lviv stadium was a major source of financial pilfering under the Tymoshenko government, not to mention marred by delays to the point that FIFA threatened to move the tournament.

Lviv now though, after several changes in contractor and no doubt a seriously interested government, is on track and looking fairly good.

A change of government and announcement that the Kyiv stadium had been seriously under estimated when it came to financial costs by the previous one, of course brought allegations from the now opposition parties that the new government was also with its hand in the till and somewhere in the mix would be stealing the additional funds.

None of this is pretty, but Ukrainian politics runs on half-truths, false and genuine allegations and personal conflicts over and above policy and common sense. During all of this, the FIFA clock is ticking and a new president and government stand to be very red faced if the tournament is withdrawn because Ukraine is not ready. Not to mention the ammunition for the opposition who successfully landed the joint bid with Poland but will not get any international plaudits or bouquets should the event be a success.

So, with exactly 367 days to go (at the date of this post) before the first whistle blows in Ukraine, how are things now?

Well, there will be some logistical problems as there are with every tournament. I have experienced some myself in nations that started with a far better infrastructure that Ukraine. That said, the stadiums will be ready on time without doubt. The internal logistics and infrastructure within the four hosting cities will cope and the planning looks good.

Accommodation for hundreds of thousands of traveling fans is more of a concern, although even that looks like it will be sufficient before kick-off.

40,000 police will apparently learn English. That is much harder to believe. I suspect that amongst that number will be any officer in Ukraine with average English being temporarily assigned to to hosting cities for the tournament in addition to any that manage to grasp the basics between now and this time next year.

What about the stewards and hospitals? I have no idea. Whilst English is not rare, it is not exactly common either.

The official and unofficial gathering of translators has begun in order to take the strain it seems.

So will it be a success? Generally I think it will. I expect Ukraine to surprise the critics and I am not alone in these beliefs. Almost all of the diplomatic corps I have spoken to in Ukraine also seem to think that not only will Ukraine be ready but that it will be a success as well.

Undoubtedly there will be incidents. There are at every major tournament be it the Olympics or the World Cup. The issue with such incidents is not that they occur but how they are dealt with. It seems the diplomatic corps, Europol and every man and his dog is prepared to bend over backwards to help Ukraine host a major success.

All of a sudden, it is starting to look rather promising!

Roads paved with gold – Lviv to Krakovets

Well dear readers, here is a little story sent to me by one amongst your number, and worthy of a little look.

As some of you will know, and many of you won’t, there is an 84 kilometer stretch of road being placed between Lviv and Krakovets as part of the infrastructure preparations for the 2012 Euro football tournament.

The cost of this stretch of road will be UAH 3.4 billion ($427,672,956)……..or UAH 40,476,190 ($5,091,345) per kilometer.

Now, dear readers, as a civil engineer from the UK, I can of course only equate prices firstly in £ Sterling and secondly in miles…..but to save you the maths, the average cost per meter of motorway in the UK came to £14,291.54.

Thus 1 kilometer of motorway in the UK on average costs £14,291,540 or UAH 174,356,788 per kilometer…….far more than the Ukraine figure per meter.

In case you are wondering and want to do the math yourself, a motorway costs on average £23 million per mile, dual carriage way £13 million per mile and normal 2 way street £8 million per mile.  Work on exchange rate of UAH 12.20 = £1.00 and 1 mile = 1.609 kilometers.

Now here is the link to the story:

http://zik.com.ua/en/news/2011/02/04/270729

I do not know if the new road between Lviv and Kraovets is a motorway, (though I doubt it), a dual carriageway (possible) or a normal 2 way street, but given the costs (which I know are about right for the UK as it was my job) any which way I work the numbers even on a standard 2 way road, I do not get the costs to 4 times that of the UK…..not even close to that.

Whilst those talking in the link have valid points on warranty durations, construction standards, quality of materials used in the roads and kickbacks, they are completely wrong when it comes to saying it costs 4.5 times more to build a road in Ukraine than the UK (which happens to be in Europe).

That said, there is generous amounts of room in the Ukrainian figures for kickbacks, given wages are less, materials of lower quality and workmanship poor…….but it is still piffle to claim it costs more to build a road in Ukraine that in Europe…….let alone 4.5 times more!!

How much does a stadium cost to build?

Well dear readers, Ms Tymoshenko wishes to open a criminal investigation into the current government over the costs of the construction of the the Olmpiysky Stadium in Kyiv for the 2012 Euro football tournament.

“I think that I will bring a statement about another crime, which is being committed in Ukraine, to the next examination,” she said on Monday after questioning at the Prosecutor General’s Office.

Tymoshenko explained that the matter concerns doubling the cost of the construction of the Olympiysky national sports complex for the Euro 2012 European Football Championship.

She noted that the previous government allocated about Hr 2.144 billion for the stadium construction. “The cost has been changed and now it is Hr 4.5 billion”, Tymoshenko said.

Hmmm.

Let us look at the costs of recent stadium builds.

We will work on UAH 8 = $1.00 or UAH 12.2 = £1.00 which is close enough for comparison.

Therefore her government decided that UAH 2.144 billion…..or £175 million……or $268 million……was enough for the new sports complex?

So, recent stadiums…….. Wembley Stadium £757 million……or  $1 billion……..or UAH 9.2 billion.

Staying in Ukraine, the Donbass Stadium in Donetsk cost $400 million…….or UAH 3.2 billion.

I have no idea where Ms Tymoshenko’s government got their figures from but for $268 million there is no way that amount of money would produce a world class stadium/sports complex in Kyiv, particularly considering this is not a straight build but required demolition in the costs as well.

Obviously their estimators/quantity surveyors from whom they took “advice” have absolutely no clue, even if they worked from a matrix system, of how to cost.  I quick flick through the Internet shows how far off $269 million would be in most nations when it comes to delivering something worth while.

Considering the apparent prestige holding the Euro 2012 football tournament may give Ukraine, if it happens successfully, and considering it was her government that submitted a joint bid to host it with Poland, the production of a safe and quality stadium experience for the visiting international community (which FIFA will have concerns over quite rightly)  will not be produced on the budgeted figures her government allocated……as is clear in Donetsk and London in recent years.

I’m not sure this would be the best stick to hit back at the current government as it has just as much chance of showing ineptitude of her government than the corruption of this one .

Human Rights – UK Embassy Ukraine launches HR Page

Well dear readers, over at the UK Embassy Ukraine website, there is a new page to view relating to human rights:

http://ukinukraine.fco.gov.uk/en/about-us/working-with-ukraine/human-rights-in-ukraine/

Human rights is a difficult issue covering a multitude of areas relating to certain freedoms and welfare of people.

Issues to consider when entering this minefield of practicalities, emotions, entitlements, considerations and ideology is that no nation has a historically clean bill of health in this arena  and  even currently very few are a Utopian bastion of all that is good.

We can condemn China for the recent Nobel occurrence but China has raised more people out of poverty in the last 20 years than any other nation on earth.

We can hardly say the UK is without fault, having just paid £ millions in compensation to renditioned, tortured, Guantanamo and other detention centre detainees, to prevent court action against HM Government.

The EU pays Libya to intercept and return asylum seekers heading to the EU despite the human rights issues of Libya itself.  Poland and Romania currently (pending Ukrainian EU association) are the front line to refuse asylum seekers from places like Chechnya even entering EU territory and thus preventing the claiming of asylum as they do not enter EU territory.

France and the Roma are another issue, not to mention the Burk-ah ban .

Then there was the 2007 report from the EU stating “black prisons” in Poland and Romania existed for US “persons of interest” to be unofficially held indefinitely and secretly.

Hungary and Italy have passed laws this year which could seriously be interpreted to stifle the freedom of speech, freedom of the press and freedom of expression.

The partial climb down of the EU over the SWIFT issues with the USA and personal data  another example of a trade off over human rights.

Then we can look at the larger picture of even the most Utopian nations having trade and official relationships with some of the most odious regimes on the planet such as Zimbabwe and Robert Mugabe.

The prima facie case suggests duplicity of the highest order and in some respects this is true.

One has to ask the question however, if you do not engage officially and within such an odious regime, how do you expect to slowly try and change that regime’s outlook on human rights?  It is surely much harder to do so from outside the territory of the said regime.

Sanctions have a habit of  adversely affecting those who are already suffering rather than those who are causing the degradation of their subjects.

The current shenanigans with Wikileaks is another example.  If the US goes after Wikileaks then surely it has to go after each and every newspapers that has also published the cables, not to mention the now thousands of mirror sites that have sprung up.

All terribly difficult when you have to consider the seemingly duplicitous actions of your own nation, past and present (and possibly future) when trying to encourage change in another nation.

There are obviously issues with pragmatism via trade and engagement verses idealism of blanking a regime and shouting at it from afar when you can be more easily ignored.

To make any difference to any nation with regards to human rights (or any other issue for that matter) there needs to be a consistent attitude,  a set policy, a sustained focus, appropriate technologies applied when and where possible and all the aforementioned complimented by adequate resources to achieve the goals you have set…….or it is completely pointless.

Let us take one small example of the U K’s projects in Ukraine relating to human rights, one particularly close to my heart, that of disability.

I would 100% support the work that has been done over 2 years getting 132 disabled people into work, however how do they get to work?

A major issue in every city in Ukraine is the mobility of disabled people before they can even get to work.  If the lift does not work in their apartment block they are trapped until it does and it can take the Zhek months to repair a broken lift.

Once they are in the street, how many disabled buses run?  How many have ramps, hydraulic lifts and the space for a wheelchair?  How often do they run?  Are they advertised so disabled people know where and what time a bus that can accommodate them will be passing?

Once in the city, haw many shops, restaurants, banks, bars and buildings are accessible?  How many have ramps and lifts?

Now of course some buildings simply cannot accommodate ramps but many can.

How many places have toilets big enough (let alone equipped) for a disabled person to use a toilet even if there is a ramp to the toilet and not stairs?

How many European and US companies are in Ukraine and completely ignore their Head Office policies back in their home nations relating to disabled access?  Quite honestly almost all fail on this issue despite there are indeed laws in Ukraine relating to disabled access and mobility.  You can be quite sure such access exists in their locations outside Ukraine where legislation and fines are enforced.

If there are some EU Embassies which are pushing disabled issues in Ukraine, such as the UK has done, then surely pressing the companies and subsidiaries of entities registered in their nations to adhere to their own corporate policies here would be a very good start when it comes to leading by example.

It is not hard to do.  I wrote 5 letters for a disabled charity in Odessa to 5 foreign owned banks here to various head offices around Europe,  pointing out relevant Ukrainian laws they were breaching relating to disabled access and highlighting their own corporate policies at which they were in divergence.  3 installed ramps at several of their city centre branches where the environment would allow.

I am a nobody, completely insignificant to both my home nation and Ukraine and yet managed to get something done.  I would expect that a concerted effort from numerous embassies to their national corporate entities in Ukraine would have a much greater effect if they actively encouraged this, particularly as many such corporate entities enjoy a relationship with their embassies when it comes to representing or defending their interests with the government of Ukraine.

Is there consistent pressure on architects and city planners when it comes to disabled access and facilities or will new buildings be as unfriendly as the existing ones for the disabled community?  Who is pressuring the local governments to insure that such considerations are taken?  How many local government officials are looking at the new apartment blocks and asking that x% have slightly wider doors into the apartments?  A facilities management scheme to ensure timely life repair if communal areas are not adopted by the Zhek?

Are they pressuring the Zhek to prioritise broken lifts?

I am sure that the 132 people who have benefited from the UK Embassy project are incredibly grateful in the two cities targeted by the project but there is a simple and effective way to influence the issue on a national basis by each and every Embassy actively encouraging the corporate entities with Head Offices incorporated in their own nations, raising the issue about their subsidiaries inaction in Ukraine.  Just worthy of some thought maybe?

Anyway, this post which has turned into something of a rant (apologies), is here to highlight the new UK Embassy Ukraine human rights page.

If you are particularly keen to get involved in the disabled project highlighted by the UK Embassy, have a look at the below link:

http://www.eef.org.ua/index.php?page=catalog&id=18&lang=en