A Tymoshenko case dropped?

Apparently, although I have yet to be able to confirm it via non-Batkivshchnya Party channels, the case against Yulia Tymoshenko relating to involvement in the murder of Yevhen Scherban that occurred in 1996, has been quietly dropped – effective 26th April.

If true, a significant step forwards in the eyes of the EU one suspects, as it deletes one of a list of pending cases against her.

However, if true, very little has been said about it publicly by anybody – and you would expect the opposition parties to broadcast such a matter loudly – if only to undermine the abilities and motivations of the Prosecutors Office in the eyes of the public.

At least you would expect such an opposition cacophony unless there is a deliberate political move to distance themselves from the personality Ms Tymoshenko and the circus that surrounds it – and reasons for that there are a-plenty.  That is perhaps much easier to do now Sergey Vlasenko, her lawyer/defence council, is no longer a Batkivshchnya MP.

Hopefully corroboration from sources external and unconnected  to the Batkivshchyna Party will come soon enough, putting an end to yet another poor decision by the PGO of Ukraine.

ECfHR Tymoshenko Ruling

Since the European Court for Human Rights (ECfHR) released its first ruling (which is not final for 3 months from its announcement to allow for any appeals) on 30th April, both her supporters and detractors have been making some rather flexible interpretations about its meaning – far outside the scope of what is actually written.

What is true is that the court found serious fault with the old criminal code to which Ms Tymoshenko was subjected – a code no different to that employed to imprison the vast majority of the thousands of Ukrainians who also sit in prison today.

There was little doubt that serious fault would be found – otherwise why would the current Ukrainian government and parliament have created a new criminal code which finds far more favour with the European community?

Successive Ukrainian governments have known the old code to be seriously flawed – as did, undoubtedly, Ms Tymoshenko when she was Prime Minister only a few years ago.

Neither does it comment on her guilt or innocence for the matters over which she was prosecuted as some have inferred.

However such is the extent to which supporters and detractors have stretched far beyond what is actually written that somewhat unusually this statement was made by the ECfHR.

In short, the political motivations – or not – behind her trail and detention are not – yet at least – subjected to an ECfHR comment.  That is not what this ruling was about.

In several months, when her next case judgment is made, the issue of political motivation or selective justice may – or may not – be mentioned by the ECfHR – however it would perhaps have been far more circumspect to keep ones powder dry relating to that particular issue until that date if the opposition are to try to motivate and mobilise the public using the ECfHR as a driver.

Unfortunately, having made statements to the effect that the ECfHR stated Ms Tymsohenko was a political prisoner on the day of the judgment release, for that to then be refuted by Roderick Liddell of the ECfHR on 7th May, does not do much for the credibility of the opposition.

All the ECfHR ruling actually does (removing Ms Tymoshenko from the picture) is confirm to the Ukrainian public that the old criminal code was arbitrary, unfair, less than transparent, legislatively flawed in protecting by human rights and procedural normative – and that is not news to the Ukrainian public who lived under it for decades.

Fortunately, as the current government created a new criminal code to replace the old one under which Ms Tymoshenko was processed because it was so flawed, they will find it very difficult to appeal the ECfHR ruling whilst lauding their new criminal code as a major step forwards.

Anyway, far more interesting will be the Tymoshenko ruling due in a few months time – and whether political persecution or selective justice will be mentioned by the ECfHR in its ruling.

An aligning of the planets? Tymoshenko

Recently I seem to have mentioned the circus that is and surrounds Yulia Tymoshenko far more than normal.

That is perhaps understandable given some EU leaders insistence upon her release to guarantee the signing of the EU/Ukraine Association Agreement in November at the Vilnius Summit.  Other EU leaders would prefer to march on and sign the agreement whether she be free or not.  A not uncommon state division over policy EU foreign policy affairs it has to be said.

A few days ago, I wrote about the prospects of a Tymoshenko release after the official recognition of an all female MP plea, during the Orthodox Easter and why such timing would be no bad thing.

As I wrote, that petition was sent to the Pardons Committee.

Since then Prime Minister Azarov has stated that her pardoning cannot occur until all pending court cases have been heard – which is completely untrue.  She can of course be pardoned for those offences of which she has been found guilty already – albeit other cases in the judicial arena are bound to carry on until guilt or innocence is found.

For Prime Minister Azarov, it make make bureaucratic sense for all her pending cases to come to whatever conclusion they may prior to any pardoning – but that is not how the rule of law, Pardons Committee nor human rights work.  More to the point, the Prime Minister does not consider or grant pardons and therefore his opinion should be seen only as that – despite his position.

The system indeed allows for her to be pardoned at any time for the offences she has been found guilty of – regardless of any pending legal proceedings despite what Mr Azarov states.

In fact, the Pardons Committee is due to consider the aforementioned all female MP plea on 29th April, and following on from yesterday’s entry where I pondered just how fast ECfHR fast-tracked cases actually move, I now discover that the ECfHR ruling is supposedly due on 30th April – giving Ukraine the opportunity to grant her pardon prior to what is likely to be a rather pointed judgment from the ECfHR in favour of her release over procedural issues that fall well below the expected European normative.

In short Ukraine internally has the opportunity to recommend and grant her release immediately prior to the ECfHR ruling,  thus taking much the sting and media interest out of that particular tail, whilst also being seen by much of the domestic audience to meet the symbolic motivations due to the Orthodox Easter.

Of course regardless of the Pardons Committee recommendations (if in favour of a release), or the ECfHR ruling, Ms Tymoshenko may remain in jail anyway pending any Ukrainian appeal against said ruling.

Nevertheless, perhaps the planets are indeed aligning for an Orthodox Easter pardon – which I have mentioned many times, would not surprise me should it occur.

That said, as I have written before, if Tymoshenko is not released before or during the RADA summer recess then I seriously doubt that she will be before 2016 – thus it is unlikely any deal will be signed and everyone will have to resort to Plan B – the quiet implementation of parts of the DCFTA most expedient to both sides.

Fast tracked? ECfHR ruling on Tymoshenko

A very short thought for the day as I have just had an operation on my right eye and currently can only see with one – which changes my perspective quite literally, notwithstanding any desire to write something lengthy.

Nevertheless, to ponder today as I did on the operating table, as certain leaders within the EU are still insisting that Ms Tymoshenko be released before any signing of the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine – and with Ukraine having stated many times publicly it will honor any ECfHR ruling – one has to ask why the alleged fast-tracking of her case and any  subsequent ruling seems to be anything but fast?

This is surely the biggest possible almost politically neutral lever to expedite her release given Ukraine’s public statements that it will comply.

It must be terribly slow for those standard pending cases at the ECfHR if her case is an example of being “fast-tracked”!

Tymoshenko release probable very soon? Maybe so

Two days ago, as my twitter and Facebook followers will have seen, I highlighted this from the presidential website.

It is official recognition from the President that a formal plea from numerous female RADA MPs have petitioned for Tymoshenko’s pardon and the petition has been formally recorded and recognised.

It is not the first petition for her pardon the president has received – there have been many – but it is the first I have seen acknowledged in such a way.

The following day, it was followed by a similar appeal by historical members of the Ukrainian diplomatic corps.

Previously I forecast that Yuri Lutsenko would be released on the occasion of the Orthodox Easter, but he was released 3 weeks earlier than my crystal ball declared.  That said, I made that prediction at the beginning of February, so perhaps it was a little smudged when I gazed in it.

Could it have been so smudged that I mistook the release of Lutsenko for Tymoshenko and yet the timing between 28th April and 5 May will still prove to be accurate?

It certainly wouldn’t be a bad time to do it for numerous reasons, if that is the decision.

Obviously the symbolism of releasing a woman due to an all female petition, together with if not the resurrection of an omnipresent – the rehabilitation (in part or in full) of a foe by a president many consider likes to think of himself as omnipresent, could sit very well with the Orthodox faithful during the Orthodox Easter.

Symbolism aside, the United Opposition are in something of a mess when it comes to leadership and discipline, Kyrylenko resigning as Deputy Leader of the United Opposition yesterday and MPs leaving, and yet another enormous ego in the shape of Tymoshenko’s entering the daily fray would probably prove more divisive than unifying for them in the medium term – possibly immediately.

Particularly so as there will be those dreading her release amongst the United Opposition just as there were Lutsenko’s release – and for good reason when it comes to personal ambitions.  For them the question is whether Tymoshenko is indeed a spent force amongst opposition parliamentary politics or not.

It would also allow 18 months for any warm (be it very warm or lukewarm) reception from the public she may receive upon release to have cooled greatly prior to presidential elections in 2015, as well as defining her reception amongst an opposition that has moved on somewhat, without her.

Naturally it would all-but guarantee the signing of the EU Association Agreement and DCFTA in Vilnius in November, despite many other demands Ukraine may fail to fulfill in their entirety to the EU time line.

It is though,  an agreement document that will forever go down in Ukrainian history with the signature of President Yanukovych thereon.  Something history will never be able to deny him.  History will equally record his failure to engineer its success.   Let us not underestimate ego.

Perhaps most importantly, and therefore the most unlikely to be mentioned immediately by many, for Yanukovych’s reelection ambitions, should the agreements get signed, it may very well help prevent the further courting of a fairly disgruntled traditionally Party of Regions biased oligarchy with potential new lovers in both Klitschko and Yatseniuk – something that has recently been happening albeit tentatively.

None will back Tymoshenko if released and able to stand for election – “anybody but her” is still very much the current thinking amongst the vast majority of that particular clique.

It maybe that her release, in true Ukrainian style, is done at the very last minute prior to the Vilnius Summit in November – but I doubt that.  If not at Easter, then possibly during the summer RADA recess.  If not by then, then probably not prior to the Vilnius Summit at all.

Whatever the case, the announcement on the presidential website does raise speculation – if not necessarily the odds – of it happening soon.

I will certainly not need to sit down due to shock, should her release come far sooner than most have anticipated – not that on-going investigations would stop.

It also has to be said, I will also not be surprised if her reception amongst the opposition parties and many of their supporters is far cooler than she may expect either.

Opposition demands to be debated next week in the RADA

The United Opposition have stated that the will unblock the RADA next week as agreement has been reached to allow their 4 key “issues” to be considered during that time.

Those 4 key issues are:

The setting of an election date for the position of Kyiv Mayor.

A vote of “No Confidence” in the current government.

The abolition the new pension reforms.

The removal of the Artilces of law under which Ms Tymoshenko is currently jailed.

And?

Well the issues relating to the Kyiv Mayor are currently being considered by the Constitutional Court which the law proscribes must give their decision upon within 3 months.  Would it not be wise to allow the court to come to its conclusions prior to this debate?  At least everybody would know what cards they have to play with then.

A vote of “No Confidence” is very likely to be unsuccessful and will do the image of the United Opposition no good whatsoever if they prove ineffective at removing the government.  The “Rise Ukraine” campaign is for what exactly if they cannot deliver?  To prove they still cannot deliver perhaps?

And what if they win a vote of “No Confidence”?  New elections at a time when all in the RADA should be concentrating on getting as much EU compatible legislation passed within the very limited time frame available before the Vilnius Summit in November  - as their joint pro-EU statement proclaimed.

Elections under the same electoral laws that are a key EU demand for reform and under which the opposition lost only 6 months ago?  Why is electoral reform not a key demand of the United Opposition – does it not help their cause to have a far more equitable playing field?

Should the EU/Ukraine AA and DCFTA not get signed in November as planned, is that not a far better time to call for a vote of “No Confidence”?  It would be a major failure of both Yanukovych and the government.  Or do the United Opposition believe that it will be signed and that to try and win a vote of “No Confidence” after a successful signing would be far harder?

I have to be honest and say that just as I doubted the timing (and effectiveness) of the “Rise Ukraine” campaign, I also have serious doubts about the timing of the attempts to topple the government – a central plank of the “Rise Ukraine” campaign.

I have no problem with the politics, but the timing seems very poor given the wider best interest of Ukraine being at least able to function until November and the Vilnius Summit if there is to be a glimmer of hope relating to signing EU agreements.

Abolishing the pension reforms?  To be replaced by what?  The old and economically unsustainable rules that previously existed?  What is the United Opposition policy to deal with a serious economic issue facing not just Ukraine, but almost all European nations relating to pensions, in lieu of the current reforms?  What is their policy, how will it be financed, and is it any better than the current reforms they are balking against?  Does anybody know?  As a follower of the opposition I am yet to hear their alternatives.

Lastly, the removal of the legal Articles under which Ms Tymoshenko was jailed.  I am not sure if this is the second or third attempt to do so – but previous attempts have failed.  The reality, unfair as the entire process may have been, is even in removing the offending Articles now, they were still the law when she was found guilty under them.  It will not do nothing to remove her conviction even if it would perhaps give greater scope for moral pressure relating to her release.  Laws are not retrospective in their application or removal – and neither are convictions under them unless officially pardoned.

Given the United Opposition’s very subdued reaction to Lutsenko’s release, are the United Opposition simply going through the motions for the public relating to Tymoshenko anyway?

What do they gain by her release in the long run vis a vis her continued incarceration?

What happens to their little power-sharing deals if she was released?  A major “cause” and easy headline maker in her de facto political prisoner/martyr status will also be removed, not to mention they would immediately be standing in her very considerable vocal and political shadow the moment she left the prison gate.

Would or could the United Opposition even manage to remain united if she was released and took the helm of Batkivshchnya again – giving a public perception of sending the three current captains back to being nothing more than deck-hands in the process?

Do Yatseniuk, Klitschko and Tyhanbok willing want to take that chance with their own political futures – or will they simply go through the motions for the public?

More broadly, what are the chances next week of the United Opposition winning any, let alone all, of the above 4 issues over which they have blocked the working of the RADA for months?

If they fail to make any progress after these issues are debated – are they going to block the RADA again?  To what end?  The dissolution of parliament and with it any hope of timeliness in legislative progress toward the EU normative within the EU nominated time frame?

Tymoshenko loses court case – in New York

What seems long ago, back in July 2011 in fact, I wrote about Ms Tymosehnko launching legal proceedings against – well anybody involved in her then on-going court case and also anything that could be directly attributed to Dmitry Firtash or his business dealings.  That list has continued to grow, with new names being added to the action every time Ms Tymoshenko felt suitably offended by somebody.

This is the court class action complaint – Number 11 CIV 2794, United States District Court, Southern District of New York.

Back in July 2011, I wrote here - “You have to say the law suit she submitted reads as though it was written by somebody not overly conversant with the fact that every word must be chosen carefully in any litigation process,……. 

………Suffice to say it reads as though it was written by somebody with at best, only a passing interest in law. I have seen far more accomplished legal writing in standard contracts to be honest.”

Well, yesterday, a large part of the class action complaint 11 CIV 2794 was kicked out by the US judge stating there was insufficient evidence.  Having reread the above link, it is hardly surprising given just how terribly written the above class action is.  (In fact having read it again, I was extremely diplomatic in the above quote).

Given Ms Tymoshenko’s liking for suing in US courts – and looking at the standard of the class action prepared and filed that will subsequently get kicked out in its entirety I strongly suspect – perhaps she should consider suing the lawyers that allowed such a poorly written class action to enter a courtroom in the first place?

Anyway, I stated such a course of action was folly at the time – and thus it is proving to be so.

Yatseniuk for President!…….if I’m not released

The Ukrainian presidential elections are not that far away.  Less than 2 years in fact.  Current opinion polls predict a fight between the current incumbent Yanukovych and Vitali Klitscho should the election be held in the immediate future – with the polls having the current incumbent the likely winner.

A long way behind these two in the opinion polls sits Arseney Yatseniuk – somebody I have previously supported when running as Front for Change.  Sadly, I have to say, that since including himself and his party under the Batkivshchnya banner of Ms Tymoshenko my support for him has wained as his policies (not that I agreed with them all) have become evermore lost in that circus.

However, 24 hours is a long time in politics and things can change – rapidly.  As Harold Macmillian is supposed to have stated “Events dear boy, events“.

And so it seems that Ms Tymoshenko, fresh from having her calls for a single opposition party thoroughly crushed, first by UDAR and Klitschko and then by Vyacheslav Kyrylenko and “For Ukraine, has decided to take control – or at least try – of the opposition presidential candidature and eventual race in 2015 instead.

According to RADA MP Oleksandra Kuzhel, Ms Tymoshenko has stated “Definitely, Yulia Tymoshenko said: “Oleksandra, if I am not released, you have to work and help Yatseniuk.  This was the position that she clearly voiced.” 

She added that Tymoshenko also reminded about the importance of consolidated action, the need to stop infighting within the opposition.

 ”If all three parties do not stand together, we will be first swept away by the people because those who once again believed, will not be able to forgive unrealistic expectations.”

“And if it so happens that she would not be able to participate in the elections, so we must all work for Yatseniuk. No other position.“

So there we have the supposed nomination(s) of a United Opposition – Tymoshenko if freed and Yatseniuk if not – an opposition that is clearly neither particularly united in so much as it is unlikely to stop Klitschko running given his standing in current opinion polls, nor paying very much attention to present public opinion.

Thus looking forward to 2015, for the benefit of Ukraine and the absolutely necessary break from choosing between Kuchma administration political hangovers (and their very skeleton filled closets), to install a different face with a far less murky past and even some ideology that surpasses “power for powers sake” and “gorging from the trough whilst you can”, we have to hope for two things – the first is that Tymoshenko remains in jail until the elections are over, and subsequently a defeat for Yanukovych by whomever runs against him.

If breaking the cycle of electing Kuchma’s corrupt old guard is critical – and it is – the question is then who stands the best chance of defeating Yanukovych?  Yatseniuk or Kiltschko?  Today my money is on Klitschko from the two of them – by 2015, who knows?