But what if the Association Agreement gets signed?

Much has been said and written about the EU-Ukrainian Association Agreement and DCFTA.  Much has been said and written about how it would necessarily anchor Ukrainian policy within the EU normative.  Much has been said and written about whether – or not – the Association Agreement will be signed in November.

But what if it does get signed – apart from the much repeated long term economic benefits to Ukraine – not to mention short term geopolitical victory for the EU (and perhaps Ukraine depending on your point of view) – where does democracy fit into this equation in a relationship with an EU in flux which seems to simply add layers of complexity where they are not needed but ignoring necessary layers of complexity where they are required?

There are already nations outside the EU that are in the European Economic Area (EEA) such as Switzerland and Norway which in short are effectively regulated and somewhat controlled by the EU through decisions relating to the single market, without having the voting or veto rights of full EU membership – EU-Lite for want of a better expression.

Debate rages in the UK over EU withdrawal – or not – and a much mentioned issue is the de facto issue that by leaving it would put the UK in a very similar position to the EEA nations – whereby a certain amount of arbitrary compliance will be necessary for trade without any voting rights over the rules and regulations that come with compliance.

And so, taking that issue one constituency further from the centre, to the most ambitious agreement ever attempted between the EU and an external State (Ukraine) – where does that leave Ukraine should the Association Agreement and DCFTA get signed?  A position that is likely to be effectively EU Lite-lite or EEA-Lite.

It will be left to implement EU and EEA rules and regulations without any voting rights whatsoever over EU or EEA decisions.

It is hardly likely when lobbying the Ukrainian cause without any robust voting or veto rights, that Ukraine will change EU minds when future decisions change the EU internal political/trading/economic environment to which it may have signed up to.  28 internal nations will have already agreed – what chance an EU Lite-lite nation making any impact on that decision?

If the decision is made that all bread sold within the EU must be coloured green, then any Ukrainian bread imports into the EU would have to be green, whether Ukraine can make green bread or not – or whether it can do so cost-effectively – to make a point in a rather juvenile way.

Basically, if the EEA (EU-Lite) is a constituency without democratic normative tools to influence the EU, then what is equivalent to being EU-Lite-lite – should the agreements be signed – is no different.

Should these documents be signed and all content within effectively implemented by Ukraine, it will be as close to being an EEA nation without being an EEA nation as is possible – part of a constituency with no effective democratic tool box or representation within the EU.

The more integrated it becomes in that EEA or EU constituency, the more Brussels decisions with impact within Ukraine will seem undemocratic to the Ukrainian society – a society already desperately clinging on to democratic ideology despite seeing absolutely nothing delivered by the democratic system since 1991.

How can this be overcome when there are no explicit promises of accepting Ukraine into the EU other than vague references to Article 49 of the Treaty of the European Union?

An EU-Ukrainian council in which, should no agreement be reached, a third party with a decisive vote in case of deadlock – the EEA nations perhaps, in the form of the EEA Council – can settle matters?

If not that way, or in cases of appeal, who would act as the final court if legal challenges were made?  The ECJ or another jurisdiction?

How do you deal with an effectively enlarged constituency when denying it the basic rights of the democratic tool box and representation to rules and regulations are made by the core?

After all this is not a simple matter of bilateral relations – nothing is simple when it comes the EU foreign policy!

A day with the “Beeb”

A very short entry today as I have spent the day filming with the BBC talking drug and human trafficking, smuggling and counterfeit goods in Odessa – naturally I will eagerly await my BAFTA nomination!

So having spent the day talking trafficking routes in and out of Odessa and more broadly Ukraine – and basically stating the obvious, in that serious and organised crime will always choose the route of least resistance – and Ukraine is probably not as robust as the EU States when it comes to preventing entry or egress of illicit “goods” on the European continent, it is perhaps good timing that today, an announcement of the opening of Odessa Port’s new terminal will be in Autumn 2013 – an absolutely necessary economic infrastructure addition in respect of legitimate trade – but also another point of weakness in a somewhat porous and very large international land and sea Odessa border.

With such a large international land and sea border, how can Odessa be anything other than porous and a route of least resistance for serious and organised crime?

Asylum, Schengen and proportional representation

Now here is an interesting little story – somewhat comical to a degree – which leads nicely into Ukrainian voting systems.

Andriy Shkil, a former Batkivshchnya (BYuT) MP of the previous parliament, has been refused asylum by the Czech Republic, a nation well known for granting asylum via the historical legacy of Vaclav Havel who rarely turned an application down.

Why did the Czech Republic refuse his application for asylum?

The answer lays within the Schengen Visa system.

Although free to travel anywhere within the Schengen area once a Ukrainian has a Schengen Visa, they have to enter and egress the Schengen zone via the specific nation that granted the Visa.  If Poland granted the Visa, a Ukrainian who wanted to visit Italy for example, would have to travel there and back via Poland.

Personally I don’t know a Ukrainian who isn’t aware of the rules – although undoubtedly there will be some.

Logic would dictate, following on from such basic rules, that if an individual is going to claim asylum somewhere within the EU, that also will necessarily need to occur in the nation that issued the Visa, rather than seeking asylum in any EU nation an individual may take a fancy to.  Ultimately, a nation issuing a Schengen Visa must have some responsibility for their decision to grant – or not – an individual entry, for it is their decision and not that of any other Schengen area state who may well have made a different decision.

And so, in a way, it is rather comical that a one-time parliamentarian – an individual supposedly bright enough to have been trusted in creating and supporting – or not – Ukrainian legislature, has tried to claim asylum in the Czech Republic on a Schengen Visa issued by France.

Naturally, had Mr Shkil been reelected to the current parliament, he would not be seeking asylum anywhere but enjoying the immunity and impunity being an MP brings – and the fact he is not in parliament today it is not because he was beaten in any constituency seat, but rather due to his very lowly place on the Batkivshchnya Party list when it comes to proportional representation.

The Ukrainian electoral system is a mixed electoral system where 50% of MPs are those who take office through what is officially called Single Member District Plurality (or First Past The Post as most would recognise it), and 50% of MP seats are in parliament due to how high they are placed on their party list vis a vis the percentage of the vote their party gets.

Naturally all the top places on party lists go to the leaders to insure their place in parliament without having to go through the rigors of actually standing against another in the first past the post system in a constituency seat – as they may lose and that would never do!

Placed at 87 on the Batkivshchyna Party list, either Mr Shkil was not willing to pay enough to those who make the party lists to be placed higher, or he was such a poor performer during his tenure that his placing was deliberately done to insure he would not return to parliament.  Given the high number of poor performers on most party lists, he was either simply out bid or truly useless beyond comprehension.

Anybody on party lists lower than position 50 are in a precarious position and are certainly not assured of representing a party in parliament.  87th on a party list is a clear signal you will not get your nose in the RADA trough.

Even if we look at the ways of manipulating the proportional representation part of the vote, 87th place would simply not have been high enough to reasonably expect a return to the RADA.

If we look at the independent form of mixed electoral systems, then the 50% of first past the post seats run completely separately and in parallel to the proportional representation 50%.  This system can lead, for example, to a party winning all the constituency seats and then half of the 50% of seats allocated by proportional representation – thus giving a party 75% of the parliamentary seats.

Alternatively there is the dependent mixed electoral system, whereby proportional representation places parameters on the system, thus is therefore somewhat dominant over first past the post.  For example if a party wins 40% of the national vote, then their party members who win their seats through the first past the post constituency elections take their seats, followed by a remainder from the party list until it reaches the 40% of the popular vote it won.

Yes there are occasions under the dependent system whereby a party may win more seats in the first past the post constituency seat elections, than it should hold under its share of the proportional vote count.  Should that be the case, these “overhanging” seats in excess of the proportional vote are honoured and the parliament extends to accommodate the additional MPs for that session – whilst everybody else is represented by their proportional share of the vote.

None of this would have helped Mr Shkil at such a lowly place on the Batkivshchnya Party list – and neither would manipulating the size of voting districts – as Ukraine, for the purposes of its proportional representation, is seen as one big district rather than allocations on a proportional basis by Oblast (county) level.

Quite simply, the smaller the district, the smaller the number of proportional seats available, and thus the higher the percentage of the vote needed to win a seat.  The larger the district, the more proportional seats available, the lower the percentage of the vote needed to win a seat – not rocket science (albeit political science summed up by the formula X  1/(X+1)).

Anyway, enough of that academic waffle – Mr Shkil is now in France duly seeking asylum there.  The question is, will France grant it given that it is not normally that accommodating compared to the Czech Republic – a nation that was obviously Mr Shkil’s first choice when submitting his asylum application.

European Commission takes the next step in allowing for Ukrainian Association

Not at all surprisingly, on Wednesday 15th May, the European Commission took the necessary steps to draw up the documentation allowing for the Commission and Member States to sign the Association Agreement (and DCFTA) during the Vilnius Summit in November.

Such things do indeed take time when 28 nations have to agree to every word, phrase and punctuation mark on any document such as this.  Failing to do this now, and still have all national capitals agree with what is stated in time for November, would be something of an ask considering just how unwieldy the EU machinery is.

Naturally Ukraine is nowhere near dealing with all the issues that the EU institutions have demanded – but it has made some progress and may possibly address in their entirety, or significantly advance, many if not all of them prior to Vilnius in November – possibly to a degree where signing could be accomplished.

That is not withstanding the media headline issue of Ms Tymoshenko, who looks set to still be in prison by November.

The question is really whether the issue surrounding her will prevent any signing.

It is, after all, not that the EU or its Member States consider her innocent – nobody has commented on her guilt or innocence (officially) – but an issue of “selectivity”.

Now, there are those within the EU who feel that the Tymoshenko issue should not prevent the signing of this document – particularly given the year or two (minimum) it will take to ratify throughout all Member States – and thus a political lever of “ratification” can still be used against Kyiv over the Tymoshenko issue.

For example, it is becoming quite clear that influential States such as Poland and Sweden want the agreement signed whether Ms Tymoshenko is in jail or not – and it seems their lobbying on this issue is having some effect in Berlin over recent weeks.

There is also the old problem of interests verses values to consider – and with almost all EU economies in recession once more – and Germany only posting a +0.1% growth rate for the first quarter of 2013, opening up parts of the DCFTA on the basis of a signed agreement (if not ratified) will not do Europe any harm when it comes to easier trade and lower customs tariffs, thus increasing access and lowering prices respectively, with 46 million potential customers.

Will EU economic interests trump EU values as far as Ms Tymoshenko is concerned – even for a percentage point bump in economic fortune?

Is Berlin’s apparent softening due to Swedish and Polish lobbying, or the dire current German economic growth rate – or both?

Will Berlin actually soften enough to allow the signing by November – and how will the German elections in September change matters if at all?

There are also two sides to every “values” coin.  Should Ukraine as a nation be held at arms length over the singular issue of Ms Tymoshenko where it seems likely little progress will be made?  Will the Ukrainian public turn its back on the EU if that happens, considering themselves abandoned by the EU?  What of all the millions of Ukrainians who believe her guilty regardless of the standard of the trial or the selectivity of the prosecution?  The mass mobilisation of the public in her support has been noticeable by its absence.

Even the Untied Opposition, UDAR and Svoboda make only scant reference to her these days – albeit with on eye on the presidential election horizon, one suspects they would see her release as something of a fly in their ointment for several reasons.

It really is quite tough to call regarding the signing – or not – of these documents.  At the moment I am inclined to say they won’t get signed, although it would not take much to tip me over to a more positive view – and if 24 hours is said to be a long time in politics, then 6 months hence is  still too hard to forecast.

Klitschko talks of time running out and personal sanctions

Only a few days ago, I mentioned a statement from Stefan Fule relating to no time extension for Ukraine to meet EU expectations in November.

As I stated, despite the bullish tone, this has far more to do with the European political calendar preventing any extension, rather than Stefan Fule developing a rigid, rather than flexible, backbone.

Let’s be quite honest, after 7 difficult years of negotiation for both sides – including some serious concessions by Ukraine – the EU would not normally throw that away for the sake of a few months if there were a few additional months in the political calendar to play with.

The fact is, due to national elections in very influential member states, notwithstanding the European parliamentary elections during the next 2 years, quite simply there is not much room, if any, to allow any political deadlines to slide for a few months.  A few years – yes.  Look to 2016 at the earliest after German, European parliament, French and UK elections to name but a few – including Ukrainian presidential elections.

Allowing any signing to slide until then, naturally removes the desire for political momentum on either side – raising the question of whether that momentum can be regained several years from now.

Even if the Association Agreement and DCFTA is signed in Vilnius in November, due to the same European  political calendar, ratification will still take years for the same reasons.

All blatantly obvious to anybody with half an eye on the European political electoral calendar.

Unfortunately, this seems to an issue completely overlooked by the opposition in Ukraine if Klitschko’s recent comments are anything to go by:

“Even if the association agreement is negotiated and signed, in order to have it ratified by all the EU countries, Ukraine has to comply with the basic political values and principles of the European Community, such as the rule of law, the absence of selective justice, real reforms, and democratic electoral law. To achieve this, Ukraine has much to do and the time is very short.

For our part, we, as the opposition, are pressing on the authorities to make them meet the commitments so that the country should not lose the chance to join the European community. If the Ukrainian authorities fail to adhere to the commitments, the issue of personal sanctions against officials cannot be avoided.”

Firstly, when looking at these comments, it has to be said that negotiations have concluded some time ago – indeed the agreements were initialed by both sides in March 2012, thereby effectively sealing them to major and significant amendment.  Thus it is a question of singing the already initialed agreements and no longer negotiating as Klitschko states.

The second paragraph in which he makes reference to personal sanctions on members of the existing government should it fail to adhere to those commitments is really not something that the opposition are likely to achieve – and they must surely be aware of that given the interaction they have with th EU and its member states – so why say it?

What are the chances of the EU placing sanctions on Ukrainian officials – seriously?

Not only are the outcomes of sanctions hit and miss and lengthy when it comes to getting any result, they are actually fairly limited in their scope.

Looking at EU sanctions, they consist of arms embargo, economic and financial sanctions and visa/entry restrictions.  No more and no less.

EU sanctions have proven to be of little impact to those individuals within Belarus to whom they are applied.  They are not being very seriously considered as far as a mirror of the US Magnitsky Act in respect of Russia and persons therein.

Applying EU sanctions to individuals within Ukraine, without for example, applying them to fellow EaP nation  Azerbaijan or individuals within government circles there – which has a far worse democratic, human rights, repression of freedoms and electoral manipulation record – would be difficult to justify to the European public.  Particularly so given the lack of impact and results in Belarus.

There is also a lack of EU diplomatic will to raise sanctions on individuals in Ukraine.  Only recently I spoke with somebody in the Brussels bubble (Chatham House Rule applied), and he stated that sanctions are not the way forward.  They are difficult to gain consensus over to implement, and even harder to then garner the consensus to  remove – and Ukraine has its supporters within the EU that would make gaining consensus over sanctions very difficult.

It is somewhere that sufficient numbers of EU bureaucrats do not want to go with regard to Ukraine.

Now if I am reliably informed of this, then surely this must have been made very clear indeed to the likes of Mr Klitschko and the other opposition leaders, who will have undoubtedly raised the issue several times – so why raise the issue again publicly if there is a high probability that it simply won’t happen.

When – as will more likely than not – sanctions against individuals are again publicly called for by the opposition, and again rebuffed by the EU – with a presidential election in Ukraine now on the horizon, how would any refusal reflect on the ability, authority and perception of international influence of any opposition candidate be in the eyes of the Ukrainian electorate?

There is much to be said for timing.  Being right and/or decent is not enough to win an election.  There is the overriding need to be convincing.

Time is indeed running out, not only for Ukraine to have progressed enough to allow the signing of the Association Agreement and DCFTA, but also for the opposition to stop the political showboating and empty rhetoric.

It is now time for the opposition to prepare their own political, economic and social policies ready for an effective delivery to the electorate by whomever is put forward as an opposition presidential candidate.  To frame their election campaign as “We were bad when in power, but they are worse” is really not an inspiring electoral campaign – and yet that is all that is currently on offer.

The first to frame the elections in a better way than that, will probably keep the upper hand.

No deadline extension for Ukraine – Fule

Yesterday, Stefan Fule EU Commissioner for Enlargement and Nighbourhood Policy, clearly stated that the EU will not extend the time it has given for Ukraine to address the issues of serious concern to the EU when it comes to the signing – or not – of the Association Agreement and DCFTA.

“First of all, we have never postponed the deadline for Kyiv. Foreign ministers of the EU countries in December clearly stated that they would be ready to sign the association agreement at a summit in Vilnius in November. However, they specified three sectors, in which they expect decisions from Ukraine through consistent and obvious efforts,in particular selective justice, the program of reforms and flawed electoral laws.

We see some progress the Ukrainian side made in all the three sectors, including politically motivated proceedings. The release of Lutsenko and Fylypchuk  is a step in the right direction. However, much is to be done, including the guarantee that this phenomenon won’t happen again.”

A statement they may seem rather bullish – but in reality is actually dictated by the electoral timetables of several EU Member States and European Parliament elections due to occur in late 2013, 2014 and 2015, events that naturally divert attention away from issues Ukrainian and concentrate EU attention of “the self” and its component parts.

Simply put, no matter how bullish the statement of Fule may appear,  if the agreement is not signed in November, the European political calendar simply dos not allow for any such signing until 2015 at the earliest.  Any later than November and there will be significant political actors that if not at the end of a legitimate domestic mandate, are just finding their feet under a recently acquired domestic public mandate – issues of legitimacy and all that!

However, all that aside, I am not aware of any serious requests from Ukraine to extend the November deadline anyway – which causes one to ponder the need for such a statement from Fule – other than keeping the pressure for reform momentum on, and forcing the majority and minority in parliament to work together at least over matters EU.

Ukraine – An energy hub – Be careful what you wish for

On Friday 3rd May, whilst I was enjoying my time off in the Odessa sunshine and taking in the beach life, Ukrainian Energy Minister Eduard Stavytsky had a meeting with the EU Energy Commissioner Gunther Oettinger (as well as Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil amongst others) in Brussels.

What became immediately apparent, if it wasn’t already clear before, is that Ukraine has decided that it can become a gas hub for the European continent and intends to pursue that strategy, making the most of its gas transport system and more particularly its vast underground gas storage facilities (50 billion cubic meters).

The infrastructure, whilst somewhat decrepit and thus in need of some serious investment, does at least exist already.

Very good – and an obvious goal to pursue given the soviet legacy Ukraine inherited.

But then there is the widely talked about “resource curse” to consider should Ukraine actually achieve its aim of both Black Sea Shelf and fracking production, transit and storage.  It may very well turn into an oil and (mostly) gas State.

Quite possibly a very good thing for the Ukrainian economy, GNI and indeed citizen income as well.

But at what social cost?

Of all 23 nations on the planet where 60% or more of GDP is derived from oil and gas – not a single one can be classed as a democracy.

Further all are very corrupt, almost completely unresponsive to the demands of their populations and have extremely low accountability amongst the political elite.

Looking at the Human Development Index which is a key identifier when it comes to identifying liberal consolidated democracies, almost all oil and gas States with 60% of GDP coming from those sources have extremely low HDI scores regardless of citizen wealth and GNI per capita.

That is not to say a low HDI score prevents democracy, of the bottom 46 ranking nations in HDI, 13 can be deemed a democracy of sorts and 2 of those, as liberal democracies.

Looking at the top 25 HDI scoring nations, only Singapore is not a democracy – and from the top 40 HDI scoring nations they are all democracies less Singapore and a few small oil and gas States (Qatar, UAE etc.)

Thus becoming an energy producing exporter and hub may well have dire consequences for an already “feckless” (per academic definition) political system in Ukraine.

One of the best ways to identify an effective and consolidated democracy seems to be to take the Freedom House score and multiply it by the World Bank anti-corruption score, and more often than not it closely mirrors the HDI position in the HDI league table – Spooky!

In fact, discounting the Islamic world, there is a very strong correlation between democracy, freedoms and any HDI score a nation has.

So becoming an energy producer and energy hub as planned will destine Ukraine to the usual fate of oil and gas dominant GDP nations with regards to democracy?

Well, not necessarily.

“Feckless” as the Ukrainian politics are and have been historically, there is nothing to prevent the current “feckless democracy” of Ukraine moving to a consolidated effective and possibly liberal democracy prior to the full  realisation of the energy producing/energy hub plan.  Should that movement to an effective and consolidated democracy occur prior to, or even simultaneously with the “energy plan”, then all may bode very well for democracy in Ukraine.

A very smart scholar named Przeworski has proven that (again removing the Islamic world from the equation) should the personal purchasing power of a nation reach a certain monetary figure (currently about $10,000, but a figure that needs to be index linked to remain relevant), then no democracy has ever crumbled.

In effect with a diversified economy and the average purchasing power per capita of $10,ooo or more, democracy is not only consolidated but invincible to the challenges of other governance models due to the middle class/ independent bourgeoisie.

Ergo, empirical evidence and academic works from the likes of Lipset, Prezeworski, Welzel and Ingehart etc, would all point towards the necessity of moving Ukraine’s currently “feckless politics” to an effective democracy whilst simultaneously trying to reach $X personal purchasing power and climbing the HDI league table if democracy is to survive any significant oil and gas increased share of the Ukrainian GDP.

The question is can the feckless political system stop being feckless before it leads Ukraine into the black hole of the resource cursed nations?  Looking at the entire Ukrainian political landscape and personalities within, that seems very unlikely without consistent external pressure and guidance.

All in all, an obvious and achievable plan for Ukraine – with very scary possible outcomes should it succeed.

Ukrainian EU perceptions

Nicely timed for my return to the blog after a week off, Eurobarometer has just released some survey results relating to the extent to which Ukrainians would like further EU involvement in Ukrainian affairs.

76% would like greater EU involvement in economic development.

69% would like greater trade with the EU.

64% would like greater EU involvement in human rights within Ukraine.

60% would like greater EU involvement in democracy in Ukraine.

Seemingly 53% of Ukrainians trust the EU more than NATO or the UN when it comes to external entities, and far more than the current Ukrainian government which has a 23% favourable rating, or the parliament and Ukrainian political parties with an 18% favourable rating each.

The full survey results can be found here – with my usual caveats relating to surveys and opinion polls naturally applying as they always do.

Nevertheless, caveats considered, some interesting indicators are apparent in this snap-shot of public opinion to ponder over during the next few days.