Will the opposition unite and remain united in Ukraine?

It is probably best to open this post by quoting the opening paragraph from A Tale of Two Cities by the one and only Charles Dickens:

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way – in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.”

It will be important to remember the stark contrasts of this passage as we take a superficial walk through the politics leading up to the next Ukrainian parliamentary elections in October 2012, for they too, as far as the opposition can manage, will be painted in such extremes.

Such is the diktat issued by Ms Tymoshsenko to those in opposition who will still listen to her.  “Remember that the key to the elimination of the regime lies in the unity of the opposition, down to a single party list, in the clear division of the political field into black and white, good and evil, into Ukraine and its occupants.”

Of course she has a point.  Members of her party would not have voted through the new election laws if they hadn’t included a 5% threshold forcing minor parties to join with larger ones to retain their seats in the RADA.  In doing so a handful of smaller opposition parties have no choice but to unite with some of the bigger ones who will pass this threshold.

Cynical for opposition “democratic forces”, as they label themselves, to vote through an arbitrary threshold that would remove democratic representation for those who voted for a candidate that received 4.9% of the vote or less possibly, but maybe effective in garnering those smaller parties who would otherwise meet the political history rubbish bin to rally around the Tymoshenko party flag that will certainly pass the 5% threshold.

However, there are other opposition parties who will also expect to pass the 5% threshold.  Klitchko’s party, Yatseniuk’s Front for Change,  the extreme far-right Svoboda party should all get over that line so there is still a need to unite the opposition.

One wonders if Ms Korolevska’s move from Ms Tymoshenko’s party to lead the Ukrainian Social Democrat Party was more planned than surprising.  A stalwart and loyal Tymoshenko ally, she is guaranteed to bring the USDP to the Tymoshenko heel.  Alternatively Ms Korolevska may simply be following the path of her old leader Ms Tymoshenko.  Lest we forget within 3 weeks of Lazarenko being arrested in the USA, the once loyal Ms Tymoshenko broke ranks and formed her current party.  In the same vein, once Ms Tymoshenko was jailed, Ms Korolevska leaves Ms Tymoshenko’s party for another.  History repeating?

Anyway, even with the 5% threshold forcing some parties to rally to the Tymoshenko flag, there are 4 or 5 opposition parties that will pass this threshold without having to give allegiance to Tymoshenko, thus possibly splitting the opposition vote and increasing the chances of PoR (and allies) retaining a parliamentary majority.

Recently the “democratic opposition” announced they had signed a unity agreement under which to fight the next election, agreeing to field a single candidate from amongst themselves to run against the ruling majority candidates for each seat.  All very good and tactically sound on the face of it until you realise that not all opposition parties actually signed up.  Hrytsenko’s party didn’t for example, and whilst a small party, he is particularly effective on the never ending Ukrainian televised political debate shows.  Oliynyk’s party is another that will not sign up.

There are other issues as well.  The unity agreement states those selected for nomination on the united opposition single list meet certain requirements “the basic requirements for candidates – decency, adherence to one’s principles, professionalism, public authority and perfect reputation.”

Errm – Exactly!  Under such criteria, it is unlikely many candidates meet that criteria as any Ukraine politics watcher will know.  It is further made more difficult by another of Ms Tymoshenko’s diktats,  “Do not allow the nomination and election of random people not tested by time and struggle, as well as entrepreneurs who plan to use politics to strengthen their business. I insist that the candidates for deputy in majority districts from Batkivschyna be publicly and seriously discussed.”

Which is it to be?  Those with a “perfect reputation”, which immediately discounts any long (self) serving RADA member leaving only new blood, or those RADA members “tested by time” as Ms Tymoshenko puts it, but will not stand up to any serious scrutiny as far as a “perfect reputation” is concerned that is called for in the opposition agreement?  Quite simply the united opposition would do well to field a handful of candidates that met both criteria.

Next, would those liberally minded voters of Yatseniuk’s Front for Change be willing to vote for a “united opposition” that  includes the self-proclaimed ultra-fascist Svoboda party?

Would Yatseniuk’s supporters vote for a united opposition ticket, which according to Ms Tymoshenko’s diktat  “Do not let new kleptomaniacs deprive the country of its strategic facilities ahead of the parliamentary elections – land, the gas transport system, hydropower, Energoatom , Ukrzaliznytsia, museum valuables and so on.”  Yatseniuk made his millions by privatising Ukrainian State assets and is on record as siding with the EBRD, EIB, IMF as being in favour of privatising the State assets Ms Tymoshenko wants to retain as State assets.

The list of political and policy divisions between this eclectic group go on and on.

Let us work on the assumption this schizophrenic, multiple-personality disordered, united opposition entity actually wins a majority at the next election.  Well, we have been here before with Ms Tymoshenko’s last government made up of numerous coalition partners with very different political views across the political spectrum and it was a disaster.  She held power by a majority of 1 and consistently needed to concede values, principles and positions to hold it together.

Which direction does any united opposition take if it gets into power?  Is there a shift to the far right Svoboda position or  will Ukraine become far more liberal as per the Front for Change position?  Will it simply become a reactionary populist government as it was last time under Ms Tymoshenko drifting in the breeze of public opinion without a rudder or course of its own?

How long will such a government stand before it is either dissolved by the President (which happened many times under ex-President Yushenko) or simply voted out of office again a few years down the line having once again proved to be completely ineffective as far as the Ukrainian population is concerned.  Due to the deep divisions between political coalition partners will anything to get done?

Something else to be seriously considered is the public demand for a “third choice”.  If we look back at the last Presidential elections, Yatseniuk (and his Front for Change) and Tigipko (and his Strong Ukraine), between them took 20% of the vote in the first round, only 5% less than Ms Tymoshenko.

Surely that must tell the established camps of Yanukovych and Tymoshenko that in 2010, one in five Ukrainians wanted a third choice that did not include either of them.  That number has surely grown rather than diminished over the past two years, as would seem to be born out by opinion polls that have seen the PoR ratings positively plummet but Tymoshenko’s rating fail to go up anywhere near that same number.

Where is the third choice now?  For those of you familiar with the thoughts of Messrs Huntington or Lipset, I concur with their line of political science evaluation.  To employ their thinking to Ukraine, it is now too open and too educated to put up with much more than another 5 or 10 years of the likes of Tymoshenko or Yanukovych.

It may therefore be a massive mistake for any third choice to remain in this coalition of the united opposition (or a coalition with those in power).   Messrs Yatseniuk and Tigipko (or possibly even Ms Korolevska) please take note!

Will this strategy of a united opposition actually work?  Will it hold together when the candidate nomination process begins or will they fragment and fall out with each other?  If they win, how will they even begin to work together on agreed policy when they come from such vastly different places on the political spectrum?  How will the Ukrainian voters actually vote when a vote for their man/woman may also put in power those they find truly abhorrent?  If the enemy of your enemy also turns out to be your enemy on a united opposition ticket, will they vote at all?

In short, will a united opposition ticket based upon the theory, the enemy of my enemy is my friend, actually sell to the Ukrainian voting public once that ideal is put under the electoral microscope?

It will be very interested to watch all this unfold over the next few months.