Arab money, Russian ambition, Chinese subversion…….beware Ukraine!

Well, dear readers, I was only going to post once today…….but then I read a post by Charles Crawford on the wonderful http://charlescrawford.biz entitled “Sub-nation States – For Sale”

Excellent points made throughout his post and ones with which I have to concur.

This inspired me to write a few rambling lines about Arab money, Russian amition and Chinese subversion, a phrase taken from what he wrote……..as all 3 equally apply to Ukraine although it is not a “sub-nation State”……. unless we are to count the Autonomous Replublic of Crimea which could be massaged to fit that status……in which case Ukraine possess a sub-State within it’s borders.

It is of course no secret that Russia has an “interest” in Ukraine and the happenings therein…….as Ukraine does regarding Russia of course.

Russian ambitions may no longer be territorial regarding the entire nation.  It is unlikely that in the current circumstances Russian tanks will be rolling through the country.

Not withstanding this, there are of course voices within Russia who lay claim to Crimea as Russian territory (for example), Crimea having been gifted to Ukraine in 1954.  A friend of mine, Yuri Luzhkov (Mayor of Moscow) is amongst those voices.  It is an opinion I do not share with him and it is an opinion which has managed to get him banned from Ukraine.  For me however, it is not a reason to halt our interaction.

Ukraine, as we all know, was kicked well and truly in the teeth during the financial crisis.  It will be 2012 – 2014 before it recovers……..assuming there is not another financial tsunami over the horizon.  If there is, then the UK and Messers Brown and Darling will not be able to compare the decade of austerity which lays ahead for Ukraine.

Russian ambition has never been so well placed to enter, buy up and control the business assets of Ukraine.  I am not talking about the State owned assets…….although we will see where the majority of what gets privatised goes…….and who the “partners” are behind the smoke and mirrors within the Cyprus and BVI holding companies which take ownership.

I am talking about large to medium sized privately owned companies.  Rumours abound that the Ukrainian Stock Exchange will be bought up by the Russians……..not the stocks alone, but the Exchange itself.  Sovereign and commercial foreign currency loan defaults are looming……and may well have already occurred if it was not for the political black eyes which would have been recieved with an election in 2 days.

This house of cards may well fall by March when the elections are over though.

Who better to buy up struggling assets than the Russian oligarchy……directed or otherwise by a political agenda.

No language barrier, no differences in business mentality, close proximity and a shared Russian/Ukrainian business elite.

Chinese subversion?  I know, I know……they are not likely to overthrow the government of Ukraine…….but corruption is a pandemic in Ukraine and subverting major and minor influencial figures with the money China has at it’s disposal is not a problem.  China buys huge amount of steel from Ukraine at prices higher than they can produce it themselves for example……stock piling?  Hmmm 

China has agreed to provide a huge amount of money for road construction and infrastructure to Ukraine…….hardly projects with major returns on capital employed even over the very long term.  So what is in it for China?  Nothing has been said by either side.  Cut price AAU’s maybe?  Bilateral trade agreements which will provide a very slanted playing field?  Miliatry development design cooperation?  Licencing to make Ukrainian goods in China?  Who knows…….China may not be a Greek, but the gifts it is bearing will have a significant price to pay no doubt.

So what of Arab money?  Libya is about to spend a truly mammouth amount of money in Ukraine……subject to the legalities of paperwork……..and is likely to take on assets like Odessa Portside.  Also in return various promises have been made by Ukraine regarding “technical knowledge” in refineries……..and “other areas”.

Which other areas?  Ukraine is the worlds 6th biggest Arms dealer……..it is something they do well.

So whilst Russia, Arabia and China are buying up hard assets, influencing business and by default politics (as business and politics are symbiotic here not only in nature but by the people involved in both)…….what is the USA and the EU doing?

Well, Baronness Ashton is concerning herself with such influential EU projects as “rule of law and the judiciary” as well as the “Free Trade Agreement”……currently being stalled by Ukraine.  The USA?  Well for 6 months or more, it didn’t even have an Ambassador in Ukraine.  Now the poor sod who was Georgian Amassador during the time the Russian/Georgian spat took place has arrived…….during a time of even more political upheaval than normal.

In the meantime…….and believe me I know (but I can’t tell you what due to NCND contracts)………the elite here are quitely doing deals with anyone who has money, regardless of national interest in the longer term.

Raiders, religion and the widows son………

Well dear readers, for many of you who live in Ukraine, the term “Raiders” is nothing new.

For those of you that are not, sadly it is not a quasi-romantic term relating to the nickname of an ice hockey or football team.

Primarily “raiders” are concerned with business and more specifically business assets.

“Hostile takeovers” I know you are thinking, as the name would suggest…….and in a way, yes they are……but not in the white collar terms of agressively buying out shareholders stakes in the western world.

Raiders here resemble Viking or Mongolian hordes kicking down doors, raping and pillaging and listening to the laments of the peasantry.

………Ok I went a bit too far……..I should have stopped at kicking down doors……..but then gone on to say barracading themselves in and quite literally, a hostile takeover of the building ensues.

What of the rule of law?  Well normally these “hostile takeovers” or “raiders” are backed by a dodgey law suit or a partner in the business which has been unable to “buy out” others……..so a show of force…….literally 30 men looking like a paramilitary organisation kicking in the doors, throwing people at work out on their arse and then barracading the building, with themselves inside, on the less than firm foundation of an on-going or just submitted law suit or simply on the orders of a shareholder with “ambitions”.

In effect, possession being quite literally 9/10ths of the law…….well actually it isn’t 9/10ths of the law…….but possession has been taken none the less and backed up even with the flimsiest of legality…….sometimes.

This is not something which occurs on the quiet either…….not so long ago, within the past 6 months, a hotel in central Kyiv, full of guests, was subject to an attempted “raid”…….which was repelled……..physically. 

You can imagine the postcards home…….”Dear Mum, Ukraine is lovely but you’ll never guess what happened at the hotel I’m staying at today……..”

Anyway, having now described the attractiveness of investments in Ukraine for the business man with partners, I will expand this mentality a little further past normoral commercial business assests…….at least normal commercial business assets for most of us.

Here is a little “raid”…….actually a series of raids……..for the more richeous and godly amongst the readership.

Interfax-Ukraine.  A group of Cossacks have averted another attempt by followers of the Kyiv Patriarchate of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church to seize the Pokrovsky Church in the village of Musorivtsi in western Ukraine.

The incident occurred during the Christmas holidays.

The official Web site of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate reported on Wednesday that a Cossack community will be set up in Ternopil region to protect churches from dissenters.

The previous attempt to take over the church was made on January 3. In total, 4 attempts have been made by followers of the Kyiv Patriarchate to seize control of the church. At the end of the liturgy about 100 people tried to break in through the front door in the presence of the police and representatives of the village administration. They managed to break the lock but failed to enter as they repeated their attempt through the side doors using an axe and a five-meter ram.

The first attempt to take over the church by force was made in mid-November and the second two weeks later. According to Archbishop of Ternopil Sergius, head of the village council personally broke the locks on the church doors while the riot police used force to let followers of the Kyiv Patriarchate enter the church.

There are major divisions in the Orthodox Church in Ukraine. Followers are split between the Kyiv Patriarchate and the Moscow Patriarchate.

How very Christian eh?…….And a little twist to the normal “raid” I am sure you would agree…….as there are no “big bucks” to be made by removing the existing shareholders in an asset in the middle of nowhere.

The unusual thing is that the “riot police” forced entry for those which wished to take over the asset……rather than protecting those which already had it.  It is most unusual for the “official enforcement agencies” to be involved in such things.

Of course, it may not be true that they were…….although I can find no rebuttles or denials anywhere.

In the current political climate, this is getting no news coverage either…….and even if it did, the current President……albeit only for another 48 hours or so……..is not a fan of the Russian Patriarchy and oft opens his mouth on behalf of the Kyiv Patriarchy…….indeed he is an ardent supporter of it.

At least the Russian Patriarchy and Catholic Church, who have their own property issues over churches in western Ukraine, have managed to avoid such ungodly actions…….

“The situation in western Ukraine is the primary reason for the blocking of the meeting,” Hilarion told reporters.

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, Eastern Rite Catholics who owe their allegiance to Rome took back some churches that had been confiscated by communist authorities after World War Two and given to the Orthodox.

The Russian Orthodox Church does not demand the churches are returned but wants the Vatican to take “concrete measures” towards improving the situation, Hilarion said, such as helping Orthodox followers who have only Catholic churches nearby.

“As soon as there are positive dynamics (from the Vatican) towards resolving this issue, then we can return to the issue of the pope and patriarch meeting,” Hilarion said.

He did not specify if the patriarch wanted help given only to members of the Russian Orthodox Church or to an independent Orthodox church formed in Ukraine in the 1990s, which rejects Russia’s top clergy despite Kirill’s appeals for unity.  (Reuters Jan 12, 2010).

So dear readers, it seems that unity across Ukraine not only political but religious is a long way from being reached and runs equally identifiably along the same West/East divide.

Unfortunately the Knights Templar and Cathars are no more (unless you are in the York Rite of the Freemasons, in which case you may well be a Knight Templar by degree)……..but if you fancy a religious crusade without having to face the Saracens……pick a side…..they are both Christian after all…..or  so they claim.

 Indeed…….Is there no help for the widow’s son? 

(Probably not with the Church fighting amongst itself and there being no recognised Lodge in Ukraine!)