Well dear readers………having read an awful lot of complete and utter bollocks from journalists, commentators and “experts” about the visit starting today of Obama to Moscow……..you would think Ukraine and Georgia would be shaking in their shoes. I have lost count of how many “commentators” have said Ukraine and Georgia wait in fear of new Russian-American relations.
Too many state Ukraine and Georgia fear being used as bargaining chips to establish good Russian-American relations.
Like what and how?…….
Let us take NATO aspirations first.
Georgia is not in Europe, it is in Asia……according to traditional geographical definitions. Therefore it does not meet the NATO remit simply because it does not lay inside what is recognised by the majority of the world as Europe. It’s people, though, do overwhelming support NATO entry for Georgia.
Unfortunately for Georgia…..France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Greece do not support it’s desire for entry……and for NATO membership it has to be 100% agreement from existing members…….not a majority vote. If the USA had persuaded all at the Romanian NATO summit in Spring 2008…….NATO would have been at war with Russia by August 2008.
Seemingly France, Germany etc etc, had not forgotten the mass media crack down in late 2007 by the existing regime, conveniently overlooked by the USA when trying to shoe-horn Georgia and Ukraine into NATO a few months later…….despite the fact they joined the EU in condemning the actions of the regime at the time.
Such are the problems with putting a USA educated puppet in charge of a nation and a blind assumption that the US war machine will back you up if you bait the bear.
At present, of Ukraine’s people, the majority are not in favour of NATO entry. Tymoshenko has never signed up to attempting to join NATO officially. Yanukovych did…….and then turned his back on what he signed after being elected Prime Minister…..causing President Yushenko to have to find a way to oust him……which he did. Yushenko signed up for it and has continually tried to gain entry for Ukraine in NATO…….despite the fact it goes against the wishes of the majority of the public in his nation. He will, however not get re-elected in January 2010.
Germany, France, Spain, Italy are all against Ukraine’s entry into NATO at this time, citing political instability, (and of course with Tymoshenko or Yanukovych likely to be the next President, Ukraine may well change NATO tac completely) and the public desire not to enter NATO……there are of course other obvious reasons why these nations do not want to antagonise Russia, but we will stick to the “public script”.
Now, any of you dear readers out there who are aware of Ukrainian politicians…..will also realise they are, for the most part, worse than useless…….regularly making unfounded accusations, corrupt deals and are masters of underhandedness, scandal and political verbal assassination…….not to mention actual assassination.
It only takes one Ukrainian political gob-shite to drag Ukraine (and NATO if a member) into an escalating conflict with Russia. At this moment in time, Ukrainian politicians cannot be trusted to think 3 or 4 seconds past opening their mouths……..consequences do not seem to matter to them until it is way, way too late. Hardly an attractive quality to have inside NATO…..particularly as Russia’s neighbour.
Then we can look at some practical and financial realities. The cost of upgrading the military capabilities in both Georgia and Ukraine will be immense. Paid for by who?…….Both countries could not scrape together enough cash for a half eaten sharama. Neither has the cash to upgrade what they have effectively…….let alone buy new standard NATO equipment for basics such as communications. There is not much point being in a military organisation if you cannot communicate in real time with the Germans or the Americans or the Spanish in the battle group next to you!
So NATO takes the risk to allowing entry of two unstable states politically into the fold, then NATO pays for their military upgrades (at the expense of it’s tax payers, not Ukrainian or Georgian tax payers) and can sit back in the firm belief that neither nation will do something incredibly stupid either politically or militarily with regards to Russia?
Then we must consider NATO’s recent desire to go globe trotting around the Middle East and Afghanistan on extremely protracted and expensive wars. Not counting the cost in life…….these wars have cost in excess of $1 trillion and more. Each country carries the cost of their own involvement………so NATO could rely on very little from Ukraine who cannot even afford to pay it’s gas bill.
The reality is Ukraine and Georgia cannot financially afford to be in NATO as they could not fund their contributions. The IMF, WB, EBRD etc will not fund their NATO bills…….that isn’t how it works.
So, even if the USA gave Russia public assurances Ukraine and Georgia won’t be joining NATO in the next 10 years………which of course they wouldn’t do………quite obviously, it is a reality that they won’t be joining within that time frame……and everybody except the presidents of Ukraine and Georgia are aware of it!!
NATO membership, first and foremost, for both countries, requires themselves to get their shit together……only after that do they have a case for joining……..so don’t hold your breath!!
So what else are the FSU states worried about……..Ukraine in particular has an almost equal trade ratio with Russia as it does the EU. Are they thinking Obama will change the trading between nations? Get real…..
The deals struck in Moscow over the next few days has already been struck by US and Russian “mandarins” weeks ago…….this is a purely signing and PR exercise in relation to nuclear warheads and supply routes to Afghanistan combined with a few “encouraging words” about democracy, independent judiciary…….words which could also be used in Ukraine……..and that’s about it.
There is not going to be a new Yalta Agreement, as signed by Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill during WWII, abandoning Georgia and Ukraine to a Communist machine. There is not and can’t be any interference with existing trade as far as the FSU states go.
Nothing the USA will say will prevent the Nordstream or South Stream gas pipelines bypassing Ukraine…..as it takes two to tango and one partner of the two is an EU nation……and therefore a NATO ally.
The EU will not abandon Ukraine as a trading partner……even if it does abandon it as a gas supply route. The EU will not abandon inward investment in Ukraine……it will get bigger if there is some political stability and transparency in the years ahead……which in turn would put less reliance on trade with Russia from a Ukrainian perspective.
Even if America and Russia got into bed together and got it on big time………what exactly do the FSU States fear is my questions to the “experts” and “commontators” from the western media…….most of whom have probably never been in Ukraine…..or Russia for that matter……..and those which have probably stayed no more than a few years……which doesn’t even qualify them from an apprenticeship.
Any country which relies on Russia for 50% or more of it’s trade will be within a “sphere of influence”…….in just the same way the USA uses trade to enforce it’s “sphere of influence”…….but of course that is not mentioned by the “experts”.
I am getting so tired of piss poor reporting in the media……Russian, Ukrainian, and Western……..but then again, scaremongering and sensationalism sells papers. It also means 99% of the time you shouldn’t believe what you read!