In yet another political balls-up in Ukraine……..Parliament voted last month to hold new Presidential elections on 25th October this year.
This was challenged by the current President, Viktor Yushenko at the supreme court, stating it was unconstitutional……as the Constitution of Ukraine states that the election must take place in the last month of the fifth year of a Presidents term in office.
Well, Yushenko took office in a f*cking cold January back in 2005…….on the back of what is know as the “Orange Revolution”……and has since then delivered Ukraine membership of the World Trade Organisation……and a lot of very pretty and expensive foreign shops on the main streets of the main cities in Ukraine……and that’s about it.
His pro Ukrainian NATO membership stance is deeply unpopular with almost 3/4 of the public, his continual conflict with the Prime Minister and parliament, vetoing what he can, and the changing of judges to ensure decisions go his way……amongst a myriad of other failures to clean up corruption have left him with a popularity rating of 3% with the Ukrainian people.
What’s the point of delaying a vote for 3 months when you have a popularity rating of 3%………you know you’re going to get your arse kicked at the polls?
Well, a lot more people will turn out to vote in October when the temperature is +18 degrees……than in January at -20 degrees……although not enough will stay at home to save his arse obviously.
An additional 3 months in power provides the opportunity to sabotage the likes of Ms Tymoshenko et al by fair means or foul. It also allows more time to collect a few more million from the “coffers”.
The way the Ukrainian political system works…..if he retains his 3%, whilst not remaining President, he will become potentially a “King……or Queen Maker” in any elections for Prime Minister……..because getting the most votes or the most seats in parliament does not necessarily mean you will be either in power or Prime Minister if leader of that party……if all the other parties for an alliance which then adds up to more than the seats and votes any single party received from the public.
No I’m not talking bollocks……..Party of Regions had the most votes from the public and won the most seats in the last elections and yet sit in opposition………because many of the other parties banded together in a coallition and managed to get one more seat than them……..so the most popular party with the voters actually didn’t get into power.
Yes, everything here is that opaque!!
At present, the opinion polls for the next presidential election show that Yanukovich, leader of the opposition is top with 20%, followed by the current Prime Minister, Tymoshenko with 15%…….followed by several others.
No…….this doesn’t mean Yanukovich will win……..this is Ukraine and therefore nothing is what it seems.
There are 2 rounds of voting for a President. After Round 1, the top 2 only enter Round 2……..which therefore means those which voted for those which did not make it into Round 2 can vote for one of the remainder.
A quick look at the political leanings of the other candidates which will be up for election in Round 1 should mean that the contest will indeed be between Yanukovich and Tymoshenko for President when it comes to Round 2…….however most of those who will vote for those which don’t make it…..if they follow the leaning of their preferred candidates……will drop behind Tymoshenko and not Yanukovich.
Tymoshenko, therefore, is likely to be the next President of Ukraine……..meaning the Prime Minister’s post will be free.
This is where Yushenko can become “King Maker” with his 3% and coalitions are formed and a Prime Minister elected by the members of parliament…..not the people of Ukraine.
Oh, don’t worry about it…….like I say it is opaque and you are not meant to understand it. As and when the time comes, I will blog about it and explain all as we go along……assuming I can still type and my fingers still work, after standing around polling stations in – 20 degrees!!!